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The Champions League round of 16 draw was last Friday, which means the bracket is set for Europe’s most prestigious club competition. Ahead of the action, we’ll take an updated look at the Champions League Final odds and share our best bet.
There are some blockbuster matchups which we typically wouldn’t expect to see until later on in the competition. Real Madrid will stay in the Spanish capital and take on crosstown rivals Atletico Madrid as the last two German champions, Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich face off next week. Meanwhile, an in-form PSG clash with Liverpool, who finished in first place in the group stage.
With some tricky paths ahead, let’s take a look at the rest of the round of 16 matchups:
Bracket
Bracket, Odds Analysis
Strong Contenders
2024 Champions League winners Real Madrid are favorites to repeat, at +325 odds. However, they have a brutal path to the final and it will be a challenge just to get through Atletico Madrid. Their path to the final could include Atletico, Arsenal and Liverpool/PSG, which presents plenty of opportunities for them to slip up.
Still, Kylian Mbappe has been hitting his stride lately. Real Madrid’s world class frontline of Mbappe, Vini Jr. and Rodrygo could get them over the line. However, Real’s La Liga rivals, Barcelona, were our best bet to win La Liga.
The Champions League Final odds price Barcelona as second-favorites, at +450. That’s no surprise, given Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha’s form. Plus, their path to the Semifinal is quite linear, given matchups against Benfica and one of Borussia Dortmund and Lille.
Liverpool and Arsenal are next on the odds board, at +550 odds each. Liverpool were the only team to win seven of their eight matches in the group stage and finished in first place. They’ve been firing on all cylinders in Arne Slot’s first season and defeated Real Madrid 2-0 in the group stage.
Arsenal have lost four of their best attacking players to injury (Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus). Saka and Martinelli could be back for the Quarterfinals, which would be a big boost for the Gunners. However, the potential Quarterfinal matchup against Real or Atletico Madrid seems brutal.
The only other team at under +1000 is Bayern Munich, at +700 Champions League Final odds. Bayern needed a last minute goal to knock out Celtic in the play-off round. Notably, the Bavarians haven’t beaten round of 16 opponents Bayer Leverkusen in any of the last six meetings.
Dark Horses
Paris Saint-Germain have been on a tear lately and Ousmane Dembele is going through a career renaissance. The new PSG false nine just had a run where he scored 18 goals in 12 games. After Wednesday’s 7-0 Coupe de France victory, PSG are now on an nine game winning streak. The Parisians also destroyed Brest 10-0 in the play-off round.
The Champions League final odds price PSG at +1200 to win the competition for the first time. If they’re able to get through Liverpool in the round of 16, it’s not a crazy prospect.
Inter Milan, who made the UCL Final in 2023, also come in at +1200. They are favorites to repeat as Serie A champions and have plenty of UCL experience on the roster.
The potential Quarterfinal matchup against either Bayern or Bayer Leverkusen will be tricky but Inter’s side of the bracket is noticeably weaker than the other. Plus, Inter only conceded one goal in the entire group stage and has a proven ability to grind out results.
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid (+2000) are tricky customers and will make life very difficult for their rivals in the round of 16. This season, Atletico have conceded just 16 goals in 25 La Liga games. That means they’ve conceded fewer than any other team in Europe’s top five leagues.
If they can come away with a draw or better at the Santiago Bernabeu, Atleti are more than capable of pulling off the upset at the Metropolitano. Antoine Griezmann is still a world class player and the addition of Julian Alvarez has made a world of difference for Atletico Madrid.
Longshots
Reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen sit at +3300 odds to win the Champions League. They were one of the top eight teams in the group stage and pulled off wins against the likes of AC Milan and Inter Milan. With a favorable recent record against Bayern Munich, Leverkusen are being somewhat underestimated. There’s no reason they can’t make a deep run in the competition.
Unai Emery has won the Europa League four times as a manager, which is more than anyone else. He’s yet to taste success in the Champions League but he did take Villarreal to the Semifinal three years ago. He’ll have belief that his Aston Villa, who are undoubtedly more talented than that Villarreal squad, can go even further.
Currently, Villa come in at +3300 Champions League Final odds but they’ve been on a poor run lately. They’ve won just three of their last 10 matches, in all competitions. Still, their round of 16 matchup against Club Brugge is favorable.
Like Villa, Borussia Dortmund (+5000) have had their fair share of struggles this season. They sit in 10th place in the Bundesliga with just 11 games to go. However, Serhou Guirassy is the UCL’s leading scorer, with 10 goals in as many games. Dortmund did make the UCL Final last season and could go on another run.
Benfica (+6600) have loads of talent but their defense will likely be their downfall. Lille (+10000) beat both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in the group stage and are an outfit to keep an eye on here. Meanwhile, Club Brugge (+15000), PSV (+15000) and Feyenoord (+20000) round out the field.
Top Soccer Bet
The last time Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan had a favorable knockout stage draw, they reached the UCL final. They were a few unlucky breaks away from beating Manchester City in 2023 and there’s no reason the Nerazzurri can’t get back to the final here.
Some key players, like Marcus Thuram and Alessandro Bastoni, are dealing with knocks. Still, there are no serious injuries at this moment that should significantly hinder Inter’s push to win their first Champions League since 2010.
Plus, Lautaro Martinez is having the best UCL scoring season of his career, with five goals in eight games. That said, Inter’s +1200 Champions League Final odds seem simply too good to pass up on.
Inter, our Top Soccer Bet on the odds board, should be too much for Feyenoord to handle in the round of 16. If they can get past Bayern Munich/Bayer Leverkusen in the Quarters I’d fancy them over both Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund in the semis.
If Inter can avoid Real Madrid in the final, they’re more than capable of lifting the trophy. Inzaghi has already won every domestic competition with Inter so expect the Nerazzurri to go all in on this UCL campaign.
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