With seven games left in the Serie A season, six teams are fighting for the final two Champions League places. While Inter and Napoli are contesting the title race, which we thought Atalanta would be a part of, the other top half teams are just trying to qualify for the Champions League. So, today we’ll check out the Serie A odds and share our best bet to make the top four.
Right now, just six points separate third-placed Atalanta and eighth-placed Fiorentina. So, the top four race should come down to the wire. Unlike last season, when five Italian teams qualified for the UCL, it’s looking like only four will make it this time around. For our projected top four, we’re considering each team’s form, injury situation and remaining schedule.
First, let’s look at the updated Serie A table after Napoli’s 1-1 draw at Bologna on Monday.
Serie A Standings
Top Four Serie A Odds: Favorites
Inter Milan (-100000) and Napoli (-100000) are locks to make the top four. Their title race could come down to the wire, especially with Inter juggling Serie A with the Champions League and Coppa Italia.
Meanwhile, third-placed Atalanta have collapsed in recent weeks. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have lost three straight matches and are 10 points behind leaders Inter Milan. La Dea have failed to score in three straight games and have tough matches against Bologna and AC Milan coming up.
Mateo Retegui is Serie A’s leading scorer, with 22 goals, but hasn’t looked the same since leaving Italy’s March camp with an injury. While Atalanta are expected to make the top four, they cannot afford any more slip ups. They’re just two points ahead of Juventus and haven’t scored a Serie A goal at home for over two months.
Still, the Serie A odds list Atalanta as -400 favorites to clinch a top four berth despite their poor form. We’d stay away from taking them at those odds as they can’t even seem to get substitutions right lately.
After 4-0 and 3-0 losses in March to Atalanta and Fiorentina, respectively, Juventus (-185) sacked Thiago Motta after just nine months in charge. Under Igor Tudor, Juventus are 1-1-0 and managed a draw at Roma on the road last weekend.
The biggest thing working in Juve’s favor is the ease of their schedule going forward. They only face two top half teams in the final seven weeks of the season: Bologna and Lazio. Those teams also happen to be Juve’s biggest competition for the fourth and final Champions League spot.
One concerning sign for Juventus is the lack of goals from their forwards. Neither Dusan Vlahovic nor Randal Kolo Muani have found the net since February 23rd.
Top Four Serie A Odds: Contenders
It’s been an excellent first season in charge of Bologna for former Fiorentina manager Vincenzo Italiano. He has Bologna on the verge of an unprecedented second straight Champions League appearance. Plus, the Rossoblu have one foot in the door of the Coppa Italia Final after beating Empoli 3-0 in the first leg.
It’s hard to ignore how good Bologna have been in 2025. They’ve lost just once in 16 matches, in all competitions. On Monday, Dan Ndoye scored a second half equalizer to snag a draw against second-placed Napoli.
That draw ended a five game Serie A winning streak. Their form has been highly encouraging, and they’ve only lost one match at home all season. However, the biggest reason Bologna show longer odds than Juventus to make the top four is their brutal schedule going forward. Bologna take on Atalanta and Inter Milan in consecutive weeks. Plus, they also have matches against Juventus, AC Milan and Fiorentina in the last few weeks of the season.
Still, the Serie A odds price Bologna at +333 odds to make the top four. While Bologna have 23 points in their last ten Serie A games, Lazio have only managed 16 points during that time.
Lazio may be in sixth place but they are only two points behind Bologna at the moment. They picked up a key road win over Atalanta last Sunday to keep them in the thick of the top four race. If Lazio can defeat bitter rivals Roma this Sunday, they have an excellent shot to sneak into the top four.
The best Serie A odds you can get on a Lazio top four finish are +350, at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, it could be tough for Marco Baroni to prioritize both the Europa League and Serie A.
Dark Horses/Longshots
There is absolutely no consensus from the Serie A oddsmakers on where AS Roma will finish. It has been a wild season for the Giallorossi, who started the campaign with club legend Daniele De Rossi as their head coach. Roma sacked De Rossi September and canned Ivan Juric under two months later.
Since Claudio Ranieri came out of retirement in November he has worked miracles. Roma were 3-4-5 in Serie A before Ranieri took over and they’ve gone 12-4-3 since.
Roma haven’t lost a Serie A match for four months and have won seven of their last eight. Their Serie A top four odds range from +550 at BetMGM to +2100 at FanDuel Sportsbook. They’re just four points outside of the top four but have a brutal remaining schedule.
Meanwhile, eighth-placed Fiorentina (+1800) still have five more games against bottom half teams. Moise Kean has been on a tear since joining the Viola and has found the net 17 times in Serie A.
Over the last few weeks, Fiorentina have also beaten Atalanta and Juventus. The problem is that they haven’t won a road match, in all competitions, since January. Since a 2-1 victory over Lazio on January 26th, they’re 0-1-4 away from home.
Fiorentina have finished either seventh or eighth in each of the last three seasons and could be headed for a repeat, especially given their concurrent UEFA Europa Conference League campaign.
AC Milan need to close a nine point gap to make the Champions League. So, they need to get three wins more than Bologna and Juventus over the last seven games of the season. It’s very unlikely, so it tracks that the Rossoneri come in at +10000 top four Serie A odds.
Top Soccer Bet and Projected Top Four
At -185 top four Serie A odds, Juventus aren’t the flashiest bet but we do think they’re the most sound. There are five games left on their schedule against bottom half teams that they should win. Plus, they’re already out of cup competitions. They can just focus on getting back into the Champions League over the next seven weeks while teams like Bologna, Lazio and Fiorentina are still trying to win other trophies.
Sure, they had some brutal losses leading up to Thiago Motta’s sacking. However, Igor Tudor should be able to right the ship. After becoming Lazio’s manager in March of last year, he guided them to a 5-3-1 record to close out the season.
If Kolo Muani or Vlahovic find their shooting boots again, the Bianconeri should beat out Bologna or Atalanta to the fourth and final UCL place. Juve’s next two matches are against Lecce and Parma, who are in 17th and 16th place, respectively. So, Juventus absolutely need to grab six points in these games to give themselves some leeway and we think they will.
Plus, Federico Gatti should be able to return from injury for the last few weeks of the season. His return should shore up Juve’s back line.
With an easy remaining schedule and a new manager, Juventus, at -185 odds, are our Top Soccer Bet. We think Inter will win the title for a second straight season, with Napoli just behind them. Meanwhile, Atalanta and Juventus should just beat out Bologna to the top four.
