Last Tuesday, Ousmane Dembele scored under four minutes in to give visitors PSG a crucial 1-0 lead heading into the second leg of the Champions League Semifinal against Arsenal. Dembele picked up a hamstring injury last week but he looks good to go on Wednesday. His PSG outclassed Arsenal during the first 25 minutes of the first leg but the Gunners grew into the game. We’ll discuss whether Arsenal can overturn the deficit as we share our PSG vs Arsenal best value bet later on.
The Gunners had their chances last week but Gianluigi Donnarumma pulled off some superb saves. Now that Mikel Arteta is getting Thomas Partey back, he can move Mikel Merino back upfront. Merino has more of a physical presence than Leandro Trossard and Arsenal may be able to play more directly as a result.
In any case, this tie is far from over despite Arsenal’s one goal deficit. Anything can happen on Wednesday but PSG won’t retreat into a shell to defend their lead. They’ll continue to try to dominate possession and make use of talented wingers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desire Doue.
Before sharing our PSG vs Arsenal best value bet, let’s check out the match facts and team news heading into Wednesday. In particular, Arsenal dealing with a bunch of injury issues.
PSG vs Arsenal Best Value Bet: Match Facts
- Score After First Leg: PSG 1-0 Arsenal
- Date: Wednesday 7 May, 2025
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Where? Parc des Princes, Paris
PSG Team News
Over the weekend, Luis Enrique made 10 changes to the PSG side that beat Arsenal. With a heavily rotated squad, PSG fell 2-1 to Ligue 1 top four hopefuls Strasbourg. With the Ligue 1 title in the bag for weeks, PSG are understandably putting their full focus on the Champions League.
They’ve only made the UCL final once, in 2020, and have never won Europe’s most prestigious competition. However, they have a great shot to rectify their past failings and have no major injuries to speak of.
So, the same side that took on Arsenal last week should start again. Dembele returned to training from his hamstring injury on Monday and has been PSG’s most vital player this campaign. Playing as a number nine, Dembele has 33 goals in all competitions. He was floating around the pitch last week, causing all sorts of confusion for Arsenal’s defense. Plus, he grabbed the crucial winner.
Notably, PSG have lost just three times at the Parc des Princes all season. Still, they’ve only won two of their last six matches, in all competitions.
Arsenal Team News
Mikel Arteta named a surprisingly strong squad to face Bournemouth on Saturday but it didn’t result in three points. In fact, Arsenal blew a lead for the tenth time in the Premier League this season and fell 2-1 at the Emirates. Skipper Martin Odegaard also picked up an injury in the process but he expects to be back for Wednesday’s match.
Right back Jurrien Timber, who has been one of Arsenal’s unsung heroes this season, also limped off last week against PSG. His status for Wednesday’s match is more uncertain and if he’s unable to suit up, Ben White will fill in. Meanwhile, Jorginho, Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are all dealing with injury issues.
It will be a boost for Arteta to get Thomas Partey back from a one match suspension. His absence meant that makeshift striker Mikel Merino had to drop into midfield last week. It was a move that made Arsenal less dangerous but if Timber can suit up they’ll be able to name the same team that thrashed Real Madrid 5-1 in the Quarterfinal.
Arsenal have lost back to back games for just the second time all season. The Champions League is their last opportunity to win silverware this season and this is their first appearance in the Semifinal since 2009. Arsenal have only been to the Champions League Final once, back in 2006. Like PSG, the Gunners have never won the competition.
PSG vs Arsenal Analysis
PSG are certainly the real deal but they can look vulnerable defensively, at times. After defeating Aston Villa 3-1 in the first leg of the Quarterfinal, the Parisians nearly blew their lead and fell 3-2 in the second leg. PSG have also lost to both Atletico Madrid and Liverpool at home in this season’s UCL.
The door is open for Arsenal to make a comeback but they’re not going to have much leeway for errors. If Timber doesn’t play, Ben White, who has been injured for much of the 2024-25 campaign, may have a very difficult time trying to contain Kvaratskhelia.
Still, Arsenal found their most success last week by being direct and expect them to eschew possession in favor of more of the same. Merino has been a genuine success up top, with a goal and two assists over two legs against Real Madrid. Arsenal also managed to beat PSG earlier in the season and will feel that they can do it again.
Last week’s game was one of fine margins, as Donnarumma saved big chances from Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard. PSG also could have easily been a couple of goals up in the first quarter of the match.
Not much separates these teams and we expect this match to be just as close as the first leg.
PSG vs Arsenal Best Value Bet, Odds
There’s not much value on taking Paris Saint Germain to advance, as that potentiality is currently at -450 odds. All PSG have to do to go through is avoid defeat but it’s not going to be as simple as it sounds. Still, PSG are +105 favorites to win Wednesday’s second leg and a draw is at +280.
However, expect Arteta to adjust tactically as Arsenal have proven they can beat any team. The Gunners are also killer on set pieces and defending them is Paris Saint Germain’s biggest weakness. So, Arsenal won’t even need to create too many chances from open play to have a chance here.
So, Arsenal at +250 isn’t a terrible pick but it’s not the PSG vs Arsenal best value bet. Nor is Arsenal +0.5 at -120 even though we could easily see Arsenal avoiding defeat here. Instead, look to Arsenal to qualify for the final. At +360 odds, it’s certainly the PSG vs Arsenal best value bet. Arsenal won at the Bernabeu and they are not going to be afraid of playing at the Parc des Princes. With nothing else to play for in their season, expect the Gunners to put their best foot forward.
We’re not definitely saying Arsenal will advance but it’s certainly the best prospect on the odds board on Wednesday. Whoever wins on Wednesday will take on the winner of Inter Milan vs Barcelona.
Top Soccer Bet: Arsenal to Qualify +360
