City’s Struggles Open up Door for Forest
English Premier League leaders Liverpool dropped points in a 2-2 draw at Everton in the last-ever Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park on Wednesday. With Liverpool seven points ahead of second-placed Arsenal, each EPL team has 14 games remaining.
As we’re approaching two-thirds of the season gone, it is a perfect time to take a closer look at the Premier League top four odds as well as the Champions League race.
Even though top four is the goal for UCL contenders, top five will likely be enough to secure a Champions League slot this season. That’s because two leagues whose teams perform best in European competitions this season will earn an extra slot.
Currently, England leads the coefficient table by three points and it would take a massive collapse by the EPL teams participating in Europe for England not to finish top two.
In any case, it appears that Manchester City’s title streak will come to an end at four. The Cityzens sit in fifth place at the moment, behind Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest (!) and Chelsea.
Even finishing in the top four might be difficult for Pep Guardiola’s side given Nottingham Forest’s rise. Regardless, here is what the Premier League table looks like as we approach Matchday 25:
The Table
Premier League Top Four Analysis
We think Liverpool are locks for the top four and, with Kai Havertz’s injury, the title. Currently, Liverpool sit at -100000 odds to automatically qualify for the Champions League. Despite giving up a stoppage time equalizer on Wednesday, Liverpool have played excellent football in Arne Slot’s first season.
A team with a healthy Mo Salah is certainly not collapsing enough to finish outside of the top four. The Egyptian leads the Premier League in both goals and assists. Meanwhile, Arsenal come in at -6600 even four attackers injured. Mikel Arteta should still be able to guide them to a top four finish but it’s not a complete guarantee.
One of the most intriguing top four contenders is Nottingham Forest (+160). They’re in third place under Nuno Espirito Santo, six points ahead of fifth-placed Man City. Chris Wood is a genuine contender for Premier League Player of the Season, with 17 goals to his name. Plus, Forest have conceded fewer goals than any other team not named Liverpool or Arsenal.
Fourth-placed Chelsea show -200 odds to finish in fourth or better but their ambition can certainly be questioned. Since manager Enzo Maresca famously stated Chelsea aren’t title contenders, their form has dropped off a cliff.
Man City (-190) and Newcastle (+160) both sit on 41 points. The difference in odds can be attributed to the fact that City last finished outside of the top four in 2009-10. City are still looking awfully vulnerable defensively while Newcastle have conceded seven goals in their last three EPL games.
None of seventh-placed Bournemouth’s next nine games are against teams in the top eight. Andoni Iraola has worked wonders with his squad and they’re dreaming big. At +700 odds, could Bournemouth make the Champions League for the first time in their history?
Premier League Top Four: Top Soccer Bet(s)
Nuno has Nottingham Forest playing their best football in three decades. They’re coming off a 7-0 thrashing of Brighton and are six points ahead of fifth-placed Manchester City. Perhaps their three toughest games of the season are in the next four weeks. They have Newcastle away on February 23rd followed by Arsenal at home three days later and Man City at home on March 8th.
If Forest are able to pick up all three points against City and/or Newcastle, which is certainly possible, they’ll be in an excellent position for their first Premier League top four finish since 1995. Forest, at +160 Premier League top four odds, are one of the best bets on the odds board.
While Forest have been earning plenty of plaudits, Bournemouth are still flying somewhat under the radar. The Cherries are only three points outside of the top four, recently destroyed Forest 5-0 and have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League matches.
Attacking midfielder Justin Kluivert recently won the Premier League Player of the Month award after scoring five goals and providing two assists in January. Winger Antoine Semenyo and 19-year old center back Dean Huijsen have been other standouts in an incredible season for Bournemouth.
The underlying numbers for Bournemouth look good. They’ve only conceded seven times in their last eight EPL games and have a favorable schedule to close out the season. It’s worth taking a punt on Bournemouth, at +700 odds, to finish in the Premier League top four for the first time in their history. It’s our Top Soccer Bet on the odds board.
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