With only nine games remaining in the 2024-25 Bundesliga season, 12 of 18 teams still have a shot to make the top four. The Champions League race is incredibly tight, with only nine points separating third place and 11th. Given many twists and turns to come, we’ll cover the Bundesliga top four betting odds and make our best bet, as we’ve previously done with the Premier League.
The Bundesliga standings, apart from the top two, look a bit topsy turvy this season. Mainz head into the final stretch of the season in third place, while Borussia Dortmund are in tenth. Here’s a full look at the standings after 25 games:
Bundesliga Table
Locks
Bayern Munich‘s 11 season title streak came to an end in 2023-24. However, this season, Vincent Kompany’s first in charge of Bayern, they look to be well on their way to being Bundesliga champions. With nine games to go, Bayern are eight points ahead of defending champions Bayer Leverkusen.
Both title contenders lost last weekend but they are still in excellent positions to make the Bundesliga top four. In fact, Bayern can clinch a Champions League berth with just three more wins. So, it’s no surprise that the Bundesliga top four betting odds price Bayern at -200000 to finish in a UCL place for an 18th straight season.
Harry Kane looks well on his way to becoming the Bundesliga’s leading scorer for a second straight campaign. His famous career-long trophy drought is most likely coming to an end in May too. The English international has scored 21 times in the Bundesliga but hasn’t found the net in the league since February 7th.
Meanwhile, Bayer Leverkusen lost to 2-0 Bayern in the Champions League on Tuesday, falling 5-0 on aggregate. They also succumbed to a 2-0 defeat against Werder Bremen last weekend. It was Leverkusen’s first Bundesliga loss since August and they’ve lost four games in a row, in all competitions, for the first time during Xabi Alonso’s tenure.
They still hold a 12 point lead over fifth-placed SC Freiburg, so Leverkusen should clinch a UCL place, at the very least. However, talisman Florian Wirtz will miss the next few games with an ankle injury. While Leverkusen are locks for a top four place with or without Wirtz, his absence makes catching Bayern near impossible.
Currently, the Bundesliga top four betting odds price Leverkusen at -100000 to make the UCL once again.
Strong Contenders
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Eintracht Frankfurt, who have struggled without leading scorer Omar Marmoush. Before Marmoush departed for Manchester City in January, Eintracht were 10-3-4 in the Bundesliga and looking well on their way to a top four finish. Post-Marmoush, Eintracht Frankfurt are 2-3-3 in the Bundesliga and have lost three straight games.
Regardless, they’re currently in fourth place, one point ahead of fifth-placed SC Freiburg. The best Bundesliga top four betting odds you’ll find on Eintracht Frankfurt are -163. Given their concerning recent form it’s a bet we’d stay away from.
Last season, Mainz 05 finished in 13th place, two points outside of the relegation playoff spot. Under former FC Zurich coach Bo Henriksen, Mainz look like a genuine threat to qualify for the Champions League. Third-placed Mainz are on a four game winning streak and haven’t lost since January.
Jonathan Burkardt looks like he could be Germany’s next number nine, as the 24-year old has found the net 14 times this season. Robin Zentner has also been one of the Bundesliga’s best goalkeepers this season. Given their recent run of form, the best odds you’ll find on Mainz to make the top four are -138.
SC Freiburg have missed out on Champions League qualification by just three points in two of the last three seasons. There are some reasons to believe they could just miss out once again.
While they have kept six straight clean sheets, they’ve scored the fewest goals of any team in the Bundesliga’s top half. Plus, they still have to play Mainz, Borussia Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen. So, it’s no surprise the Bundesliga top four odds price the fifth-placed side at +350 to qualify for the UCL.
Dark Horses
Benjamin Sesko and RB Leipzig lately
RB Leipzig have finished in the top four for six straight seasons, so it’s strange that they’re in the “Dark Horses” section. Still, they are in sixth place and have failed to win their last four Bundesliga games. Leipzig were also abysmal in the Champions League, with a 1-7 record.
Leipzig have turned it on in the final stretch in recent seasons but they simply don’t look as threatening as they have in seasons’ past. While Lois Openda and Benjamin Sesko combined for 38 Bundesliga goals last season, in 2024-25 they’ve only found the net 17 times. So, Leipzig come in at +400 Bundesliga top four odds.
In 2023-24, Stuttgart were one of the surprises of the Bundesliga season, with a well-deserved second place finish. After losing leading scorer Serhou Guirassy to Borussia Dortmund, Stuttgart have struggled at times this season and they’re in the midst of a poor run of form.
Sebastian Hoeness’ side are winless in their last four Bundesliga games. They’ve also won just one of their last seven. With nine games to play, they’re in eighth place and five points outside of the top four. They currently sit at +400 odds to make the top four for a second straight season but it’s going to be an uphill climb.
Wolfsburg are on a seven game unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga. However, they’ve drawn five of those games. They seem to struggle to keep clean sheets, despite a potent attack led by Mohamed Amoura.
One thing working in their favor is an easier remaining schedule than most other teams. Still, the Bundesliga top four odds list them as +700 dark horses to qualify for the Champions League.
Longshots
The Borussia Dortmund falloff this season has been shocking. They enter the weekend in 10th place, seven points outside of the top four. Edin Terzic stepped down last Summer after leading Dortmund to an improbable run to the Champions League final. After Nuri Sahin’s failed stint, Niko Kovac is their third coach in under 12 months.
A dreadful 3-2-7 Bundesliga road record has been Dortmund’s downfall, despite Serhou Guirassy’s 14 goals. They’re also in the Champions League Quarterfinals and play four UCL contenders over the next four weeks. Three of those matches are on the road.
Dortmund will most likely miss out on the top four for a second straight season. Plus, this time around, it’s unlikely five Bundesliga teams will receive a UCL spot. BVB, seven points outside of fourth, sit at +900 odds to finish in the top four.
Borussia Monchengladbach haven’t finished in the top half since 2020-21 and are currently in ninth. They are inconsistent and have only managed back-to-back Bundesliga wins twice this season. The Bundesliga top four odds price them at +2800 to make the UCL for the first time in five years.
Werder Bremen (+25000) give up far too many goals to have a realistic shot of overcoming a nine-point deficit.
The longest active unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga belongs to Augsburg (+50000). They’ve gone nine matches without a loss, a club record, and have kept five clean sheets in a row. All five of the teams they shut out (Mainz, RB Leipzig, Gladbach, SC Freiburg, Dortmund) have been on this list.
Ever since Finn Dahmen took over as Augsburg’s starting keeper, he’s kept seven clean sheets in nine matches. However, only three Bundesliga teams have scored fewer goals than Augsburg this season.
Best Bet
RB Leipzig (+400) have been in tight top four races multiple times in the past and have managed to qualify for the Champions League each time. Yes, their form has been highly concerning but I expect them to be able to close out the season strong. Especially given they have a favorable stretch of games coming up.
If they can beat Dortmund at home on Saturday, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to finish in the top four. I do actually think Mainz will finish the season in the top four as well but Leipzig’s odds are too favorable to pass up on.
So, we’re taking RB Leipzig to beat out Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg to the fourth and final Champions League spot.
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