We are down to just eight teams in the UEFA Europa Conference League and a handful of underdogs are still left. Today, we’ll take an updated look at the outright odds heading into the Quarterfinals. Later on, we’ll also share our Top Soccer Bet.
While the Conference League might be Europe’s third tier club competition, it gives clubs a rare shot to win a European trophy. Last season, Olympiacos managed to win their first-ever European trophy and qualify for the Europa League, when they took down Fiorentina 1-0 on home soil.
Of the eight teams remaining, only Chelsea, Fiorentina and Rapid Vienna have won a major European trophy. We’ll check out the odds team by team and see if any of the other sides have a chance to win their first piece of European silverware .
First, here’s the bracket and Quarterfinal matchups:
Conference League Bracket
Real Betis take on Polish champions Jagiellonia Bilaystok in the Quarterfinal. The winner of that fixture will face Slovenian side Celje or Fiorentina in the Semifinal.
On the other side of the bracket, Legia Warsaw clash with Conference League favorites Chelsea. The winner of that matchup will collide with either Djurgarden or Rapid Vienna in the Semifinal.
Conference League Odds: Real Betis
Ahead of their Quarterfinal against Jagiellonia Bialystok, Real Betis are -600 favorites to advance to the next round. Betis impressed in the decisive second leg of the round of 16. After drawing 2-2 against Vitoria de Guimaraes in the first leg, Real Betis picked up a dominant 4-0 win on the road.
Cedric Bakambu scored three goals over two legs while former Real Madrid man Isco also scored in both legs. Antony has also gone from meme to hero since joining Real Betis on loan. The Manchester United winger scored a goal and provided an assist in the second leg against Vitoria S.C.
Antony has eight goal contributions in 12 matches with Betis, in all competitions. He could be key to their Conference League title push. Betis are also rounding into form domestically, as they have won six straight La Liga games.
Sure, they got off to a slow start in the league phase. Still, Betis are clearly one of the most talented teams remaining. Real Betis currently sit at +450 odds to win their first-ever European trophy.
Conference League Odds: Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok have taken full advantage of their first full appearance in a UEFA competition. The Polish side had some impressive results in the league phase. They took down Molde 3-0 and picked up a 2-1 victory on the road at FC Copenhagen.
Their 3-2-1 record was good enough for ninth place. Jagiellonia easily defeated Serbian side TSC in the knockout play-off with two straight 3-1 victories. That set up a meeting against Cercle Brugge in the round of 16.
Afimico Pululu scored twice in the 3-0 victory in the first leg of the round of 16. Despite a 2-0 loss in the second leg, Jagiellonia advanced to the Quarters.
While they’ve never been on this stage before, Jagiellonia Bialystok shouldn’t be underestimated. For one, they are in the running for their second straight Polish title. Pululu is also the leading scorer in the Conference League, with eight goals.
Spanish forward Jesus Imaz is also deadly. He has scored more than 20 goals this season, in all competitions. Yes, Jagiellonia are big underdogs to advance to the Semifinal but stranger things have happened.
Currently, the best Conference League outright odds on Jagiellonia are +2000.
Celje
Slovenian champions Celje are the biggest underdogs left in the UEFA Europa Conference League. They’ll have to go up against back-to-back finalists Fiorentina in the Quarterfinal, which is a tall task. However, they have been big underdogs in each of the last two rounds and managed to advance both times.
In the knockout round playoff, Celje took down APOEL Nicosia 4-2, on aggregate. Then, Tamar Svetlin managed to score the game’s only goal as Celje beat Lugano in the first leg of the round of 16. After a wild 5-4 loss in a second leg that went to extra time, Celje showed poise to beat Lugano on penalties.
Lithuanian striker Armandas Kucys has already scored four goals in the knockout stage. He ranks joint second in the Conference League, with six goals total.
Notably, Celje gave up the joint-most goals of any team to make the knockout stage in the league phase. They conceded 13 times in six games. They also proved to be defensively vulnerable against Lugano and are sitting in fifth place in the Slovenian league.
So, even at +10000 odds, we’re not taking Celje to win a shock European trophy.
Fiorentina
New season, same story for Fiorentina. They’re in eighth place in Serie A and in the Conference League knockout stage both for a third straight season. They’ve also heartbreakingly lost in each of the last two UECL Finals. Now, they’ll be hoping third time’s the charm under new manager Raffaele Palladino.
The Viola finished in third place in the league phase, with a 3-1-1 record and took on Panathinaikos in the round of 16. Fiorentina lost 3-2 in the first leg but managed to pick up a 3-1 win in Florence to overturn the deficit and advance.
Moise Kean hasn’t needed to play much in the Conference League to this point but did score in the second leg against Panathinaikos. Kean has scored 18 goals this season, in all competitions, while Albert Gudmundsson has also been rounding into form.
Expect Kean to play a bigger role now that we’re deeper into the competition. While Pietro Terracciano has started in net for UECL games, the experienced David De Gea could step in as well.
Only Chelsea have scored more goals than Fiorentina in the UECL to this point. With an experienced squad, especially in this competition, we could see Fiorentina making a deep run. They are -2500 favorites to advance against Celje. Meanwhile, the Viola show +650 odds to come away with their first European trophy since 1961.
Legia Warsaw
The biggest obstacle to winning the Conference League for Legia Warsaw is facing Chelsea in the Quarterfinal. Currently, Legia are +700 underdogs to advance to their first European Semifinal since 1970.
They are having a poor domestic season for their standards, as they’re in fifth place. However, they’ve done quite well in the UECL this season. Legia finished in seventh place in the league phase and picked up a win over Real Betis in the process.
In the round of 16, Legia went down 3-0 to Molde just 43 minutes into the first leg. Kacper Chodyna and Luquinhas managed to get goals back to cut the deficit to one heading back to Poland. In the second leg, Ryoya Morishita leveled the fixture at three, which meant extra time. Then, Marc Gual scored an extra time winner to send Legia Warsaw to the Quarterfinal.
While Legia have slim hopes to advance, they have won their last two home games against English opposition. Bartosz Kapustka is one to watch for, as he’s scored nine Estraklasa goals this season.
Currently, the Conference League outright odds price Legia Warsaw as +2900 longshots. It would be a great story if Legia could knock out Chelsea but we can’t see them winning the competition.
Chelsea
It is not a surprise that Chelsea are -175 favorites to win the Conference League. Their squad is deep enough that star midfielder Cole Palmer has only made one start in the Conference League. Players like Nicolas Jackson and Wesley Fofana haven’t played a single minute in the UECL yet.
That depth could also be their downfall in the competition. If coach Enzo Maresca continues playing a “B” team in the Conference League, Chelsea may not cruise through to the Final. Sure, they’re on the easier side of the bracket, but winning the UECL trophy seemingly means much more to the other teams than Chelsea.
Expect the Blues to prioritize a top five Premier League finish so that they can qualify for the 2025-26 Champions League. If their second unit is able to get them to the Final, expect all of the big guns to play in late May.
Still, there are some indications Maresca is taking the Conference League seriously. Defensive midfield duo Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo started in the second leg of the round of 16 against Copenhagen. Chelsea are also a perfect 8-0 in the competition this season while outscoring their opposition 29-5.
Djurgarden
This is a rare opportunity for Swedish side Djurgarden. They are in their first European Quarterfinal since the inaugural European Cup all the way back in 1955. Almost 70 years later, they have an opportunity to reach their first Semifinal.
Djurgarden are +170 underdogs to take down Rapid Vienna over two legs. Still, it’s expected to be the most competitive Quarterfinal matchup. The Stockholm side finished in fourth place in the 2024 Allsvenskan and fifth in the UECL league phase. They beat Legia Warsaw and Panathinaikos in the group stage and are capable of pulling off the upset over Rapid Vienna.
One-time Norwegian international Tokmac Nguen has scored three goals and provided three assists in the Conference League. Meanwhile, Swedish midfielder Daniel Stensson has scored and assisted twice.
Djurgarden’s defense, led by captain Jacob Larsson, has only conceded eight times in eight games. They overturned a 1-0 deficit against Pafos in the round 16, winning the second leg 3-0. Djurgarden are +5000 longshots to win the Conference League. Even if they advance against Rapid, they will likely have a brutal Semifinal matchup against Chelsea.
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna are Austria’s most successful team but a European trophy has eluded them thus far. The 32-time Austrian champions reached the Final of the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1985 and 1996 but lost on both occasions.
Now, they are favorites to advance to the Conference League Semifinal. However, their road record has been highly disappointing this season. In the Austrian Bundesliga, where they’re in fifth place, they’ve gone 1-6-5 away from home.
They have been better on European away days, with a 2-1-1 road record in the UECL. After finishing in fourth place in the league phase, Rapid Vienna took on Borac in the round of 16. After drawing the first leg 1-1 in Bosnia, the second leg finished with the same result. In the 96th minute, in extra time, Rapid Vienna’s Louis Schaub scored a dramatic winner to advance.
While Schaub was the hero that day, Dion Brena Beljo has been consistently excellent. The Croatian forward has scored five goals in the Conference League, including in both legs against Borac.
Rapid Vienna have conceded under a goal per game in the UECL this season and are -220 favorites to advance against Djurgarden. They also have the best odds of any team not in Europe’s top five leagues to win the competition. Olympiacos surprised many by winning the UECL last season and Rapid Vienna sit at +1600 odds to do the same.
Top Soccer Bet
While Chelsea may go on to win the Conference League, we don’t think they provide the best value. At -175 odds, they have a 63.6 percent implied chance to win.
We’d rather take our chances on another team winning, especially with Real Betis at +450 and Fiorentina at +650. The Viola have been to the UECL final two times in a row and have picked up some incredibly impressive wins this season.
Fiorentina have beaten AC Milan, Roma, Lazio (twice), Inter Milan, Atalanta and Juventus in 2024-25. There’s no reason why the Viola can’t beat Chelsea, or anyone else, in a one off match. They also have the most favorable Quarterfinal matchup of any team.
Italian teams have gone 1-5 in their last six European Finals but we do think Fiorentina can break the trend. Based on the odds, their implied probability to win the Conference League trophy is just 13.3 percent. We think their real chances are much higher and they’ll probably need to win the Conference League to clinch a Europa League spot.
Plus, the Viola pose more of a threat now with Kean and Gudmundsson up front and Robin Gosens whipping in crosses from the left side. So, our Top Soccer Bet is Fiorentina, at +650 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
