There haven’t been too many surprises in the Africa Cup of Nations so far, as the four Semifinalists were all among the five teams with the shortest outright odds heading into the tournament. Heading into Wednesday’s AFCON Semifinals, there are clear favorites in each match, but anything can happen.
In the first game, at 12:00 pm EST, Senegal (+115) take on Egypt (+260) in a rematch of the 2021 AFCON Final, which Senegal won on penalties.
Then, host nation, and pre-tournament favorite, Morocco (+125) clashes with Nigeria (+220) in Rabat at 3:00 pm EST. Both games will be televised on beIN Sports in the US.
Ahead of the AFCON Semifinals, we’ll preview both matches and share the best bets. Then, we’ll take a closer look at the outright odds to see which team has the best value.
AFCON Semifinals #1: Senegal vs Egypt – Wednesday, 12:00 pm EST
Egypt have struggled quite a lot in their matches against Senegal in the past decade and change. Senegal are 3-1-1 in the five meetings since 2014 and have conceded just one goal to Egypt in those games. In the 2021 AFCON Final, the match finished 0-0 as Senegal sealed a penalty shootout victory.
While Senegal have also looked defensively solid so far at the Africa Cup of Nations, the same can’t be said for Egypt. The Pharaohs have been relying on their attacking talents, like Mohamed Salah, to bail them out. Egypt conceded twice in the Quarterfinal win against the Ivory Coast and had just 29 percent possession.
They also needed extra time to defeat Benin in the round of 16. Meanwhile, Senegal have conceded just twice in five games and allowed just one shot on target in the Quarterfinal win over Mali. The Lions of Teranga also haven’t lost a 90-minute match in this competition since the 2019 final.
Egypt certainly have their work cut out for them here. They’re going to have to defend compactly to stand a chance of advancing, as the likes of Sadio Mane and Iliman Ndiaye could make them pay.
Incredibly, none of the previous four fixtures between these two teams has finished with two goals or more. Today, bettors can take a chance on under 1.5 goals at +140 odds. I certainly wouldn’t rule out a scoreless draw in normal time, nor a late winner by either team.
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Goals (+140)
AFCON Semifinals #2: Nigeria vs Morocco – Wednesday, 3:00 pm EST
Host nation Morocco are yet to face a team with Nigeria’s attacking firepower. Heading into the AFCON Semifinals, Nigeria are the top-scoring team in the tournament. The Super Eagles have scored 14 goals in five matches, with impressive contributions from Ademola Lookman, Akor Adams, and Victor Osimhen.
Adams and Osimhen were on the scoresheet as Nigeria defeated Algeria 2-0 in the Quarterfinal. For a team just a couple of months removed from a World Cup Qualifying failure, Nigeria have exceeded all expectations. The Super Eagles are playing free-flowing attacking football.
Also, they haven’t conceded a shot on target in the knockout stage. On the other hand, Morocco will have a raucous home crowd behind them. The Atlas Lions have also conceded just one goal in five matches thus far.
They rely heavily on Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz for goals, though. The winger has found the net four times in the competition and scored the opener in the 2-0 Quarterfinal victory over Cameroon.
Nigeria have scored at least two goals in each of their five games thus far. While Morocco know how to absorb pressure, they’re not going to simply sit back in a home match. That could lead to a more wide-open game than expected.
Keeping Nigeria from scoring is not going to be easy, and Lookman shines under the spotlight. The Nigerian talisman scored a historic hat-trick in the Europa League Final two years ago to end Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten season.
He’ll enjoy the hostile atmosphere and already has three goals and four assists in the tournament. I think Lookman’s +400 odds to score a goal today are excellent. Both teams to score (+100) is another good option, but this is an opportunity that’s tough to pass up on.
Best Bet: Ademola Lookman Anytime Goalscorer (+400)
Outrights
It comes as no surprise that Morocco are +138 outright favorites ahead of the AFCON Semifinals. Playing at home is undoubtedly a big advantage for the Atlas Lions, who have also put together exemplary defensive performances.
They haven’t lost a full international since the round of 16 defeat to South Africa in the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations. Morocco aren’t going down without a huge fight here. While Nigeria may be a more dangerous attacking team than Morocco, the Atlas Lions have a good balance and an experienced coach, Walid Regragui.
Ivory Coast stunningly won the last AFCON as hosts. However, it hasn’t happened in back-to-back tournaments for 20 years.
Senegal (+250) are next on the list and managed to win this competition in 2021. They are going to be incredibly difficult to knock out given their defensive solidity. Edouard Mendy has been one of the continent’s best keepers for quite some time. He may be called upon to be their hero in penalties again.
The Lions of Teranga have had Egypt’s number lately, making them the favorites to advance to the final. Still, they’d have to take down either Nigeria or Morocco, which is easier said than done.
If Nigeria (+300) manage to knock out the hosts, they have every chance of going on and winning the final.
Meanwhile, Egypt (+500) are going to have to win two games as clear underdogs to win their first AFCON trophy since 2010. They are clearly weaker defensively than the other teams that remain in the competition.
It would be quite poetic if Nigeria shake off a World Cup Qualifying failure to win their fourth Africa Cup of Nations. They’ve been the best attacking team in the tournament, and I like their +300 odds.
Best Bet: Nigeria (+300)
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