The Supercoppa Italiana Final matchup is quite unexpected. Both Napoli and Bologna were underdogs heading into their Semifinal matches against AC Milan and Inter Milan, respectively. We were set for a potential Milan Derby in the Supercup for the third time in four seasons.
However, Napoli confidently took down AC Milan, 2-0, on Thursday. One day later, Bologna outlasted Inter Milan on penalty kicks to make their first-ever Supercoppa Italiana Final appearance. Monday’s final is at 2:00 PM EST at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Catch it streaming live on Paramount+.
First, read on for our match preview and best bet.
Supercoppa Italiana Final: Napoli vs Bologna Head-to-Head
Bologna have lost only one of their last six games against Napoli. During that time Bologna have picked up two wins and three draws against the Partenopei.
The most recent meeting was in November, as Thijs Dallinga and Jhon Lucumi scored in Bologna’s 2-0 win over Napoli.
Under Antonio Conte, Napoli are 1-1-1 against Bologna. Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the last four meetings.
Napoli: Made Most of Chances in Semifinal
On-loan Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund was at the center of both of Napoli’s goals in the Supercoppa Italiana Semifinal. Hojlund’s first-half shot was parried out into a dangerous area for David Neres to slot home.
In the second half, Hojlund scored a goal of his own to seal a 2-0 win over AC Milan. Milan certainly had their chances but couldn’t capitalize. Prior to the competition, Napoli suffered back-to-back defeats.
Now, they’re (+110) favorites to win the Supercup in 90 minutes. Napoli also got a positive injury update just before the tournament. Striker Romelu Lukaku is in the squad after missing four months with a thigh tear.
He didn’t play against Milan on Thursday, and it’s unclear whether he’ll suit up tonight. Still, with Hojlund in solid form, Conte can afford to be cautious with the big Belgian.
Incredibly, Napoli haven’t lost a home or neutral-site game since December 2024. Even without talisman Kevin De Bruyne, Napoli’s midfield is quite strong.
Reigning Serie A Player of the Year Scott McTominay and Stanislav Lobotka should be the midfield pairing. McTominay usually has freedom to roam further up the pitch. However, defensive midfielder Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa is out injured. So, expect McTominay to play more of a box-to-box role.
Notably, Napoli kept their first clean sheet of December last Thursday. Before the match, they had conceded in four straight games. Still, only one of their last seven matches has finished with more than two goals.
Ravaglia Heroics Send Bologna to Final
Bologna backup keeper Federico Ravaglia sent them into the Supercoppa Italiana Final with his penalty shootout heroics. Ravaglia made five saves in normal time in the 1-1 draw against Inter Milan in normal time. Early on, things looked bleak for Bologna.
Inter scored with just over one minute gone, through Marcus Thuram. However, BFC kept pushing and ended up with a penalty kick with ten minutes to go in the half. The referee called a handball on Inter’s Yann Bisseck in the box. Then, Riccardo Orsolini stepped up for Bologna and slotted his PK home.
Inter had better chances in the second half, but Ravaglia was up to the task, and the match finished 1-1. Bettors should be aware that there is no extra time in the Italian Super Cup. So, the match went directly into penalties, and the same would happen here if it finishes all square.
In the shootout, Ravaglia saved two penalties, and Ciro Immobile Bologna’s winner. It’s just the latest in a series of upset wins Bologna have pulled off over the last year and change.
Even though Ravaglia was excellent on Friday, Bologna have had trouble keeping clean sheets lately. In fact, they have allowed a goal in seven games in a row. Their form has been quite up-and-down, with just two wins in their last six games overall.
Still, they’ve found the net in eight of their previous nine matches, in all competitions. Their offense will take a bit of a hit, as Federico Bernardeschi suffered a collarbone fracture in Friday’s match.
While Orsolini is the designated PK taker, Bologna don’t have a star striker. No Bologna player averages over 0.41 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. Attacking midfielder Jens Odgaard is their most clinical finisher.
Supercoppa Italiana Final: Napoli vs Bologna Prediction, Best Bet
Napoli generated just one shot on target when these teams met back in November. Bologna have had Napoli’s number lately, and they’ve been tough to beat under Vincenzo Italiano.
Only one of the last five games between these two teams has finished with more than two goals. Also, both teams scored in only one of those games.
I expect this to be a close and low-scoring match, as neither team will want to fall behind. Both teams will fancy their chances in penalties as well.
Ravaglia will continue to fill in for the usual Bologna starter, Lukasz Skorupski, in goal. He’ll be confident after Friday’s performance.
Meanwhile, Napoli beat Cagliari in penalties in the Coppa Italia Round of 16 at the beginning of this month. Napoli keeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic saved the decisive penalty in the 9-8 victory.
With three of the last six meetings ending in a draw, I think there’s value in another one here. Bettors can take a draw at +220 odds.
If you want to go one step further, you can bet on a draw and under 2.5 goals at +260 Same Game Parlay odds. Given Bologna’s recent inability to keep shutouts, it stands to reason that the most likely scoreline is 1-1. The odds also confirm that.
A 1-1 draw (+525) has shorter odds than any other option on the odds board. I’d keep it simple, though, and just go with a draw as my one pick from this match.
In penalties, I’d give Bologna the edge. Especially so, given how recent their shootout success was. Ravaglia could end up being BFC’s hero once again in the Supercoppa Italiana Final.
Best Bet: Draw (+220)
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