10/10/2023. London, United Kingdom. The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits England's football training centre St George's Park where he announced EURO 28 would be coming to the UK and Ireland and met the England manager Gareth Southgate along with the England mens squad. Picture by Simon Walker / No 10 Downing Street
The league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League is finally here, and we’ve already made our very premature champion pick. Now, we’ll take a look at the best game of Matchday 1, Bayern Munich vs Chelsea.
Granted, there are some other excellent games on the first Matchday. Juventus vs Dortmund, Real Madrid vs Marseille, Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid, and Manchester City vs Napoli are all highly intriguing clashes.
Still, this is the only match that features two recent Champions League winners. Both Bayern (2020) and Chelsea (2021) have won during this decade. Also, both teams are in solid form heading into this one. Neither Bayern nor Chelsea have lost yet this season.
Bayern Munich are coming off a dominant 5-0 win over Hamburg in the Bundesliga. Unsurprisingly, they’re -155 home favorites here. However, Chelsea perform at their best when they’re underdogs, as the 3-0 victory over PSG in July’s FIFA Club World Cup Final displayed.
That said, we’ll preview the match and discuss if Chelsea have a chance to pull off the upset here. Then, we’ll share our best value bet for this Bayern Munich vs Chelsea match.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Team News
After recovering from a groin injury, Cole Palmer returned to the bench on Saturday for Chelsea’s match against Brentford. Palmer scored within minutes of coming on in the 2-2 draw. Meanwhile, Alejandro Garnacho also made his debut for the Blues after joining from Manchester United.
Liam Delap is still out with a hamstring issue, while Levi Colwill is another key long-term absentee for Chelsea. Tricky winger Willian Estevao missed the Brentford match with a mystery illness but should be available to play against Bayern.
Bayern left back Raphael Guerreiro had to leave the 5-0 win over Hamburg early with an abdominal injury and will miss this match. Meanwhile, midfielder Aleksandr Pavlovic is wearing a mask for a fractured eye socket, but that didn’t stop him from scoring on Saturday.
Bayern Munich’s long-term absentees are defender Alphonso Davies, midfielder Jamal Musiala, and defender Hiroki Ito.
Bayern Battering Opponents
Through three Bundesliga matches, Bayern Munich have scored a whopping 14 goals. That’s the most in any of Europe’s top five leagues so far, even though Premier League, La Liga, and Ligue 1 teams have all played one match more than Bayern.
Harry Kane has been the Bundesliga’s top scorer two years running, and he’s already scored five league goals so far. In 22 career appearances against Chelsea, the former Tottenham striker has eight goals. Meanwhile, new signing Luis Diaz and French international Michael Olise have also scored three goals so far this season.
Bayern have kept clean sheets in both of their home games this season, as Jonathan Tah has settled well into Bayern’s defense. Striker Nicolas Jackson, on loan from Chelsea, could also feature today off the bench against his parent club.
Notably, Bayern won all four of their home games in the league phase of the 2024-25 Champions League. They did, however, lose 2-1 at the Allianz Arena to Inter Milan in the Quarterfinal. That ended a 22-game home unbeaten streak in the Champions League.
Bayern are tough to beat at the Allianz and only lost there three times last season, in all competitions. In two home matches this season, they’ve scored 11 goals and are yet to concede.
Still, they haven’t played a team remotely close to Chelsea’s quality this season. Kane has stressed the importance of getting off to a good start with some tough games ahead.
Chelsea’s Cole Palmer Back in Action
After coming on as a substitute against Brentford on Saturday, it took Chelsea’s Cole Palmer under five minutes to level the score up at one. Having their talisman back from injury gives Chelsea a much better chance to get a result on the road at Bayern Munich on Wednesday.
However, defensive lapses meant that Chelsea drew 2-2 at Brentford. The Blues have looked quite vulnerable in recent weeks. They gave away a goal at Fulham that was erroneously called back by VAR. So, the 5-1 win at West Ham has been Chelsea’s only complete performance of the season.
Enzo Maresca’s side didn’t exactly look great during parts of the FIFA Club World Cup either but that didn’t stop them from beating PSG 3-0 in the final. Chelsea seem to raise their game when the stakes are highest, and they’ll certainly be up for this one.
Joao Pedro has been a standout so far, with two goals and three assists in four games. Maresca will continue to rely on him with Liam Delap out for the foreseeable future. If Estevao is healthy, expect him and Pedro Neto to start on the wings for Chelsea, with Pedro up front and Palmer playing the number 10 role.
Chelsea’s midfield is an obvious strength, with the duo of Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez. Caicedo scored a belter against Brentford and has been in excellent form to start the season. He and Fernandez have both scored twice so far in the Premier League.
Maresca’s side are joint-leading scorers in the EPL, with nine goals in four games while only conceding three times. They are prone to defensive lapses, though, and will have little margin for error against Bayern Munich.
Bayern Munich vs Chelsea Analysis, Best Bet
Astoundingly, Bayern Munich have won their first Champions League match in each of the last 22 seasons. Meanwhile, Chelsea (+333) are back in the UCL after two years away from Europe’s premier club competition. Still, Chelsea won the Conference League last season and just won the Club World Cup a couple of months ago.
This Bayern Munich vs Chelsea match won’t be a walk in the park for the Bavarians, even though they’ve been in excellent goalscoring form. Bayern’s defense is far from faultless as well. So, Chelsea could definitely find success with their pace on the wings.
Both teams to score is currently at -175 odds. The oddsmakers are quite confident in both teams’ ability to get on the scoresheet. Harry Kane is the likeliest goalscorer in the match, at -120, as he’s found the net five times in two home games this season.
Even though Bayern Munich are 4-1-1 in the all-time series, I’m not going to count Chelsea out of this game, which could end up being wild. Bayern put nine goals on Dinamo Zagreb in last season’s Champions League opener and also conceded twice.
I’m expecting a fair few goals, so the best value bet for this Bayern Munich vs Chelsea match is over 3.5 goals at +125 odds at BetMGM.
Best Value Bet: Over 3.5 Goals (+125)
About the Author
