The summer transfer window just closed, and we have already reached the first international break. It is difficult to draw too many conclusions from so few matches. We’ll take a look at the winners and losers in Europe’s top five leagues from the first few weeks of the season, regardless. We’ll consider teams’ league form and transfer market exploits.
It may even be worth considering some outright bets as a result of the first few weeks. Granted, there are no surprises at the top of the table in Europe’s top five leagues through the first few games.
Liverpool lead the Premier League while Real Madrid are on top in La Liga, on goal difference. All three of last season’s champions are on top in the other top five leagues. PSG lead Ligue 1, Bayern Munich are setting the pace in the Bundesliga, and Napoli are yet to concede a goal in Serie A.
Stay tuned to see which of the above make our list of winners and losers in Europe’s top five leagues.
Europe’s Top Five Leagues: Winners
Everton
Everton have David Moyes back, just moved into a new stadium, and have taken six points from their first three games. Jack Grealish has a ridiculous four assists in his first three games at Everton and was a great signing on loan from Manchester City.
The Toffees also spent big to bring in players like Tyler Dibling, Thierno Barry, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Everton could challenge for the European places this season.
Everton to finish in the top six, at +700 odds, looks like a good value bet.
Liverpool
Everton’s Merseyside rivals Liverpool couldn’t get a deal for Marc Guehi over the line. Still, the Reds spent a British record £125 million to bring in former Newcastle striker Alexander Isak.
Without him, defending Premier League champions Liverpool still managed to win their first three games of the season, including a win over Arsenal. Isak scored 23 goals last season and should make a great Liverpool attack even better.
Liverpool are currently at +140 odds to become repeat Premier League champions.
Cremonese
Cremonese returned to Serie A with a statement 2-1 victory over AC Milan at the San Siro. That alone is enough to get them on the list, but they followed it up with a 3-2 victory over fellow new boys Sassuolo.
They brought in a lot of experienced players on cut-price deals, like Alessio Zerbin, Federico Baschirotto, and Antonio Sanabria. One of the most unexpected deadline day deals was Leicester City legend Jamie Vardy joining the Italian minnows.
Cremonese sit at +175 odds to be relegated, but they have what it takes to stay up. They’re one of the teams to keep an eye on in Europe’s top five leagues.
Napoli
We picked AC Milan as the best value bet to win Serie A this season. However, Napoli have been very active in the transfer market and it’s already paid off. Kevin De Bruyne scored on his Napoli debut, and the Partenopei are 2-0.
Romelu Lukaku’s injury may hurt them, but Rasmus Hojlund (on loan) has a lot to prove after flopping at Man United. The last signing Napoli made from United, Scott McTominay, ended up being a Ballon d’Or candidate.
Napoli may not repeat as Scudetto winners but they should absolutely finish in the top four (-600) once again.
Real Madrid
When Real Madrid doesn’t win La Liga, they take action. After last season’s failures, Carlo Ancelotti is with Brazil’s national team. The Xabi Alonso era has kicked off with three straight La Liga victories.
Arda Guler has been superb in Jude Bellingham’s absence, while Kylian Mbappe has already scored three times. All four of Real Madrid’s summer signings, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dean Huijsen, Franco Mastantuono and Alvaro Carreras, have contributed in every match.
We still like Real Madrid to win La Liga, (Ev) and we’d take them up to -130.
Athletic Club
The only other team in La Liga with a perfect 3-0 record is Athletic Club. Signing Nico Williams to a ten-year contract over the summer was absolutely crucial, as it looked like he’d be joining Barcelona.
Incredibly, Bilbao remain competitive with only Basque players in their squad. They haven’t made any marquee signings over the Summer, unless you count right back Jesus Areso.
Oihan Sancet is one of the most underrated players in the league, and the midfielder could help Athletic Club secure a second straight top four finish (-138).
Eintracht Frankfurt
No Ekitike, no problem for Eintracht Frankfurt. Last season’s third-placed team sold their leading scorer to Liverpool and key center back Tuta.
Regardless, they’ve kicked off the season with a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen and 3-1 victory at Hoffenheim. New attacking midfielder Ritsu Doan scored twice against Hoffenheim. Meanwhile, youngsters Can Uzun and Jean-Matteo Bahoya have also scored twice in two games.
A Frankfurt top four finish, at +150 odds, looks to be a great value bet given the fall of Bayer Leverkusen.
FC Cologne
Cremonese aren’t the only newly-promoted team in Europe’s top five leagues to have a perfect record heading into the international break. After one season in the 2. Bundesliga, Cologne are looking like they’ll stay in the top division.
They demolished SC Freiburg, 4-1, and have won six straight games if you count preseason friendlies. New coach Lukas Kwasniok could not have gotten off to a better start, and he’s undoubtedly wishing the international break doesn’t hurt Cologne’s momentum.
The Bundesliga doesn’t exactly have many standout teams, so Cologne to make the top four, at +2200 odds, isn’t completely crazy.
Lyon
Back in June, it looked like Lyon were headed for relegation. After a mass player exodus and successful appeal, Lyon are 3-0 in Ligue 1.
They just beat Marseille 1-0 in the Choc des Olympiques as new signing Pavel Sulc scored the winner for the hosts. Paulo Fonseca has done an excellent job guiding Lyon through uncertain times and his makeshift lineups have been quite effective.
Lyon sit at -110 odds to make the Ligue 1 top four, but I’m not completely sold on them being able to keep this pace up.
Lille
One of the other biggest surprises in Europe’s top five leagues is Lille. Les Dogues lost striker Jonathan David, who averaged over 20 Ligue 1 goals in the last three seasons, for free this summer. Keeper Lucas Chevalier went to PSG, and tricky winger Edon Zhegrova left for Juventus on deadline.
So it’s a bit shocking that Lille have the best goal difference in Ligue 1. They have scored three more goals than any other team. Olivier Giroud, now 38, is one of four Lille players with two goals through three matches.
Lille have managed two wins and a draw and we like them to finish in the top four this season (+110).
Losers
Manchester City
Two losses from three games put Manchester City six points behind Liverpool heading into the international break. City’s next two Premier League games are against Manchester United and Arsenal.
This could end up being another season without City in the title race. However, they did improve their squad by signing Gianluigi Donnarumma on deadline day. They have one of the most talented teams in Europe’s top five leagues, but the Premier League is ridiculously unforgiving.
Newcastle
Newcastle have scored just two goals in three games and are in 17th place in the Premier League. The Magpies couldn’t hold on to Alexander Isak and will have to juggle Champions League football with the Premier League.
The 6’6″ Nick Woltemade is an intriguing new option up top for Newcastle. Still, expect a clear regression this season from Eddie Howe’s side.
Inter Milan
A lot has changed at Inter Milan since the 5-0 Champions League final loss to PSG. Simone Inzaghi left his managerial post, paving the way for former player and inexperienced coach Cristian Chivu to take over.
Inter went out in the round of 16 to Fluminense at the Club World Cup and lost 2-1 to Udinese at the San Siro on Sunday. They’ve tried to make their squad younger by signing players in their early 20s, but that might not exactly translate to results right away.
Atalanta
Atalanta will suffer in their first season post-Gian Piero Gasperini. Gasperini became synonymous with the Bergamo club and led them to their first European trophy when they won the Europa League in 2024.
La Dea replaced Gasperini with a diametrically different coach, Ivan Juric. Lacking a clear identity, Atalanta have drawn their first two games of the 2025-26 season. It’s hard to imagine they’ll finish in the top four again this season, even with Ademola Lookman staying put.
Atletico Madrid
It has been a poor start to the season for Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid. Yes, a bunch of new players are settling in, but they find themselves in 17th after three matches.
All three games (at Espanyol, vs Elche, at Alaves) were very winnable, but they’ve managed two draws and a loss. Plus, they haven’t yet kept a clean sheet.
The international break couldn’t come sooner for Atletico, who should still finish in the top four (-175). Still, early signs are a bit concerning.
Girona
One of only two La Liga teams without a point yet, Girona have scored just once and conceded ten times in three games. Girona narrowly escaped relegation last season while playing in the Champions League, and it looks like relegation is looming large once again.
Girona were very active on deadline day, bringing in forward Vladyslav Vant, winger Bryan Gil and goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic on loan. Regardless, it’s not going to be smooth sailing for Girona this season.
Bayer Leverkusen
The unbeaten 2023-24 Bundesliga champions just fired new head coach Erik ten Hag two games into the season. Things are looking bleak for Bayer Leverkusen, who could suffer one of the worst drops in form of any team in Europe’s top five leagues this season.
Leverkusen had nearly a full starting XI worth of key players depart the club this summer. That includes Florian Wirtz, Jonathan Tah, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka, and Piero Hincapie. It’s hard to imagine this will be anything other than a transition season for Leverkusen, who are 0-1-1.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg finished in fifth place in the Bundesliga last season. Right now, they are dead last after conceding seven goals in two games. Freiburg also have to play in the Europa League this season.
The last time they competed in the UEL, in 2023-24, they finished in tenth place in the league. Lacking much squad depth, this could be a down season for a team that just lost their leading scorer, Ritsu Doan.
Brest
Brest, like Girona, were a surprise team in the Champions League last season. Eric Roy’s side even reached the knockout stage play-off.
However, key players like Mahdi Camara, Pierre Lees-Melou, Marco Bizot, and Massadio Haidara left the club this summer. Brest have lost two straight matches and have conceded at least twice in all three of their Ligue 1 games.
It could be a long season for Brest, who may return to the bottom half of the table.
Nice
Including Champions League qualifiers, Nice have played five competitive matches this season. Franck Haise’s side have lost four of those games, including two of their three Ligue 1 matches.
Goalkeeper Marcin Bulka had 25 clean sheets over the last two seasons but he’s off to Saudi Arabia. So too is Gaetan Laborde, who scored 11 league goals last season. Meanwhile, leading scorer Evann Guessand left for Aston Villa.
This has the makings of a tough 2025-26 campaign for Nice, especially since they’re playing in the Europa League as well.
Best Bets
We’re all in on Real Madrid this season, and Xabi Alonso can work wonders with them. With a mix of youth and experience, Real could win their second La Liga title in three seasons.
Their attack is terrifying when at their best, and their backline is much-improved. Barcelona were great last season, but they haven’t had the flexibility to improve their personnel, and that could be fatal in the title race.
So, one of the best bets in Europe’s top five leagues is Real Madrid to win La Liga (Ev).
Bayern Munich are locks to make the Bundesliga top four, year in and year out. Dortmund are generally right there, but it took a long winning streak to seal the deal last season.
With perennial contenders Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig looking weaker than they have in previous campaigns, consider Eintracht Frankfurt to finish in the top four for a second season running.
Dino Toppmoller dealt with Omar Marmoush’s midseason transfer to Man City last season. He’ll be able to find ways to win without Hugo Ekitike, too, and new signing Jonathan Burkardt should help. Frankfurt to make the Bundesliga top four (+150) is one of the best bets in Europe’s top five leagues.
Atletico Madrid have finished in the La Liga top four for 13 seasons running. Their slow start to the season presents a great opportunity to bet on their top four odds before they turn things around.
With an elite keeper, talented attacking players like Julian Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sorloth and now Nicolas Gonzalez and Thiago Almada, I don’t doubt Atletico will improve as the season goes on.
Diego Simeone teams are not to be underestimated. Take Atletico to make the La Liga top four (-175).
