International women's friendly - Germany vs Spain, Steigerwaldstadion am 13.11.2018.
It’s a repeat of the 2023 Women’s World Cup Final as England take on Spain on Sunday in the UEFA Women’s Euro Final. Two years ago, Olga Carmona scored the game’s only goal as Spain won their first-ever Women’s World Cup. Still, England did knock off Spain en route to winning UEFA Women’s Euro 2022.
In any case, two of the world’s best teams will face off on Sunday at St. Jakob-Park in Basel, Switzerland. England came back to defeat Italy 2-1 in extra time in the Semifinal on Tuesday. Meanwhile, two-time reigning Ballon d’Or winner Aitana Bonmatí scored an extra time winner against Germany on Wednesday. These teams are no strangers to one another and have met twice this year already.
There’s been little between them in recent meetings and it remains to be seen if one side will have an edge. Before we get to our best value soccer bet for the match, we’ll preview the action.
Road to the UEFA Women’s Euro Final
England actually lost their first match of the tournament. The Lionesses fell 2-1 to rivals France in their Group D opener. Sarina Wiegman’s side bounced back in a big way by defeating the Netherlands 4-0 behind two goals from Lauren James. In their final Group Stage match, England took down Wales 6-1 to advance as Group D’s second-placed team.
In the Quarterfinal, England fell behind 2-0 just 25 minutes into their match against Sweden, which we expected would be close. Lucy Bronze and Michelle Agyemang scored late goals to level things up. After a scoreless extra time, England goalkeeper Hannah Hampton made two saves in the PK shootout, while Sweden missed three others. Bronze scored the winning spot kick as England advanced.
In the Semifinal, Agyemang was England’s super sub once again as she leveled things up against Italy in the sixth minute of second half stoppage time. Another sub, Chloe Kelly, scored the extra time winner.
Meanwhile, it was smooth sailing for Spain in the Group Stage. La Roja defeated Portugal 5-0 in their opener as Esther Gonzalez scored twice. Alexia Putellas scored twice in a 6-2 rout of Belgium which saw Spain clinch a knockout stage berth with a game to spare. Gonzalez scored for a third game in a row as Montserrat Tome’s side beat Italy 3-1 and clinched Group B.
In their Quarterfinal match against hosts Switzerland, Spain dominated but only managed to win 2-0. Spain faced their toughest test in Wednesday’s Semifinal, as Germany held the World Cup winners scoreless through 90 minutes.
Aitana Bonmatí had the decisive moment in the match when she caught Ann-Katrin Berger out at her near post from a near impossible angle. Spain then held on for a 1-0 extra time victory.
Head-to-Head
These teams met under two months ago in a UEFA Women’s Nations League match. With Spain 1-0 down, Claudia Pina came on as a sub and scored twice as La Roja won 2-1. In February’s reverse fixture, in London, England won 1-0 thanks to a Jess Park goal.
The last meeting before that was in the 2023 Women’s World Cup, where both teams made their first appearance in the Final. Spain left back Olga Carmona scored the game’s only goal as La Roja took home their first Women’s World Cup. The previous Summer, it took extra time for England to defeat Spain in the 2022 UEFA Women’s Euro Quarterfinal.
England failed to score in the other two meetings of the 2020s. These sides drew 0-0 in the 2022 Arnold Clark Cup. Two years earlier, in the SheBelieves Cup, Spain took down England 1-0.
England: Comeback Queens
England have limped into their second straight UEFA Women’s Euro Final. Sweden blew a two-goal lead to England in the Quarterfinal. Then, Sweden had two opportunities to knock out England in the PK shootout but missed both times.
It took a 96th-minute equalizer for England to equalize against Italy in the Semifinal, who Spain beat 3-1 in the Group Stage. Chloe Kelly’s winner was on a rebound off of a missed penalty. PKs are not exactly England’s strong suit, as Sweden keeper Jennifer Falk made four saves in the Quarterfinal shootout.
So, in five matches at UEFA Women’s Euro 2025, England have won just two games in normal time. That’s certainly concerning and they could be missing an X-factor on Sunday. Lauren James, one of England’s most talented players, picked up an ankle injury against Italy and is a major doubt.
Beth Mead could come into the starting XI if James can’t suit up on Sunday. Even if England have hardly impressed during this tournament, there’s certainly something to be said about their resilience. Sweden is one of the best teams in the world and England were able to overcome a two-goal deficit. They also came back against Italy with just a couple of minutes to spare.
While England may fall behind often, they can’t really be counted out. The Lionesses also haven’t lost a game by a two-goal margin for over two years.
Spain: Yet to Concede in Knockout Stage
This is Spain’s first-ever appearance in the UEFA Women’s Euro Final. They’ll undoubtedly relish the opportunity to become simultaneous European and world champions. They are yet to concede a goal in the knockout stage and have only trailed for four minutes during the whole tournament.
Sure, Spain struggled to break down Germany on Wednesday but they’ve kept at least 67 percent possession in each game they’ve played at the UEFA Women’s Euro. With players like Aitana and Alexia Putellas, Spain control the tempo of games and are incredibly tough to beat. Putellas has been unbelievable, with three goals and five assists.
Esther Gonzalez may lead the Golden Boot race, with four goals, but Putellas is certainly within reach of her teammate. Spain have been the highest-scoring team at the tournament as well, with 17 goals in five games.
Before the Semifinal, Spain had scored at least two goals in every match they played at the tournament. Still, England have a good defense and the UEFA Women’s Euro Final could be more like the Semifinal than the high-scoring Group Stage games.
UEFA Women’s Euro Final Analysis, Best Bet
Notably, England were last team to beat Spain, back in February. Still, that remains Spain’s only loss since last August. Every single time these teams face off it seems to be a close match. Spain will likely dominate possession but England won’t go away easily.
Also, the Lionesses have led in each of the last two games these teams have played against each other. Spain are not at all invincible as last year’s Olympics showed. So, even though Spain are -135 favorites, I’m not exactly confident this one will be settled in 90 minutes.
England’s last two matches have gone into extra time and it wouldn’t be a shock if that’s the case here. England have a deep bench, even if James can’t play, and the longer they hang around the more confident they’ll get.
We think this match will be decided late on and will be low scoring. Although England are +350 underdogs, they’ve certainly got a chance to repeat as UEFA Women’s Euro Final winners. However, the best value bet on the odds board is a draw and under 2.5 goals for the match at +342 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
If we have to guess, we’ll say that Spain will win in extra time or on penalties.
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