In a busy Summer of soccer in the US, the CONCACAF Gold Cup is already underway. The tournament may be getting overshadowed by the FIFA Club World Cup, which is also being played in the US. Still, the Gold Cup is CONCACAF’s biggest tournament. Gold Cup favorites Mexico and the US got off to winning starts over the weekend but there has already been an upset. We’ll take a look at the 16-team tournament field and the Gold Cup outright odds. Then, we’ll share our best soccer bets going forward, from a value perspective.
There are four groups of four teams in the Gold Cup. That means the top two teams from each group will advance to the Quarterfinals. Since 2011, Mexico and the US have alternated winning the tournament. Mexico defeated Panama two years ago in the first non US-Mexico final since 2017. The last time a team other than Mexico or the US won was Canada, all the way back in 2000.
Gold Cup Outright Odds: Favorites
United States
The United States men’s national team kicked off their Gold Cup campaign with a dominant 5-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago. Malik Tillman scored his first two goals for the national team in the victory. Despite the great start, the US are missing a bunch of key players.
Christian Pulisic decided to skip out on the Gold Cup to prioritize rest ahead of the 2025-26 club season. Meanwhile, midfielder Yunus Musah and left back Antonee Robinson are out for similar reasons. Key midfielder Weston McKennie, forward Tim Weah and attacking mid Gio Reyna are all with their clubs at the Club World Cup.
Plus, Ricardo Pepi and Folarin Balogun are injured and out for the tournament. That’s eight starting caliber players who are absent. Those absences should affect the US as they play higher level opponents in the knockout stage. In recent friendlies, the USMNT lost 4-0 to Switzerland and 2-1 to Turkey.
Sure, this tournament gives Mauricio Pochettino an opportunity to see just how much depth the US has. Diego Luna and Tillman certainly look the part. However, I don’t think the US should be considered favorites given all of the key players missing. They also lost to both Panama and Canada in March’s Nations League Finals. Regardless, the oddsmakers list them as joint-favorites to win the tournament, at +188.
Mexico
Unlike the US, defending champions Mexico have most of their key players available. This is Javier Aguirre’s third spell in charge of El Tri and the experienced manager won the 2009 Gold Cup as Mexico’s coach.
Mexico defeated Dominican Republic 3-2 in Saturday’s opener in a match that was a little too close for comfort. Still, we expect Mexico to improve as the tournament goes on. El Tri hit a rough patch from 2020 to 2023 but they won the most recent Gold Cup and the recent CONCACAF Nations League.
Aguirre has high level strikers Raul Jimenez and Santiago Gimenez at his disposal and he played them together on Saturday. Meanwhile, West Ham’s Edson Alvarez is a key piece in the middle of the park for El Tri. In defense, Johan Vasquez and Jesus Gallardo are coming off superb club seasons for Genoa and Toluca, respectively.
However, Vasquez is still recovering from an injury and could be available later on in the tournament. In any case, the Gold Cup outright odds also list Mexico at +188.
Gold Cup Outright Odds: Contenders
Canada
No Alphonso Davies, no problem. Canada destroyed Honduras 6-0 on Tuesday behind two goals from Tajon Buchanan. Coach Jesse Marsch served the first game of a two match touchline suspension and it didn’t matter much.
Canada have been on the rise for some time now. They were the best-performing CONCACAF team at last year’s Copa America and reached the Semifinals. They’ve also only lost one of their last 10 matches in normal time. That includes two matches against the US and Mexico each and games against African champions Ivory Coast, Uruguay and Ukraine.
Sure, Davies may be out with an ACL injury and vice captain Stephen Eustaquio is with Porto at the Club World Cup. Still, Canada have talented players on their roster like Buchanan, Jonathan David, Jacob Shaffelburg and young striker Promise David.
Promise has scored in each of his two appearances with the national team. He’s also coming off a superb season with Belgian champions Union Saint-Gilloise. There are plenty of opportunities for other Canadian players to step up here and they looked hungry in their first match.
Canada could continue to surprise people at the Gold Cup. They show +600 odds to win for the first time since 2000.
Saudi Arabia
Last time around, Qatar were invited guests at the Gold Cup. They reached the Quarterfinal before losing 4-0 to Panama. This time, Saudi Arabia are the lone AFC team in the field. They kicked off their first ever Gold Cup campaign with a 1-0 win over Haiti. Salah Al-Shehri scored the winning penalty in the first half.
While Saudi Arabia could make a run in this tournament, they’re also playing shorthanded. A bunch of their national team regulars play for Al-Hilal, who are currently playing in the FIFA Club World Cup. That includes Salem Al-Dawsari, who is Saudi Arabia’s captain and active leading scorer.
Even so, Saudi Arabia should be able to defeat Trinidad and Tobago and reach the Quarters. The match on Thursday against hosts USA will also be a good test. I don’t personally think Saudi Arabia have enough talent to win the Gold Cup. However, coach Herve Renard has led underdog teams to continental titles before.
The latest Gold Cup outright odds list the Green Falcons at +900 to take home the title.
Gold Cup Outright Odds: Dark Horses
Panama
Panama have consistently exceeded expectations under Thomas Christiansen. They defeated the US in March to reach the CONCACAF Nations League Final for the first time. In 2023, they also reached the Gold Cup Final for the first time in ten years.
Los Canaleros are unbeaten in their last seven games against rivals Costa Rica. They also haven’t lost any of their last three competitive games against the US. In fact, Panama defeated and finished ahead of the US in last year’s Copa America group stage. While all of these statistics are promising, Panama are missing some key players at the Gold Cup.
Midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla has been at the center of Panama’s success over the last few years. Unfortunately, he’s out due to an injury. Strikers Jose Fajardo and Cecilio Waterman are also out injured, which could hurt Panama.
Fajardo is Panama’s active leading scorer and Waterman is their second-leading scorer. While they could still make a run, especially with winger Ismael Diaz in great form, it’s tough to imagine Panama defeating the likes of Mexico.
So, it follows that Panama currently sit at +1400 odds after their 5-2 opening victory over Guadeloupe.
Costa Rica
Costa Rica’s golden generation has come and gone. Of their four most prominent players from that era (Bryan Ruiz, Keylor Navas, Celso Borges, Joel Campbell) only Navas remains on the roster. Navas is the greatest goalkeeper in CONCACAF history but he is nearing his 40s. He can’t carry Costa Rica the way he used to.
During this transition period, Costa Rica have had four permanent coaches in four years. Mexican manager Miguel Herrera has stabilized things quite a bit, as Costa Rica are 5-1 under him. Los Ticos opened their Gold Cup campaign with a wild 4-3 victory over Suriname, in which Manfred Ugalde scored two penalties.
Ugalde is one of a few exciting young talents on this Costa Rican team. He, Brandon Aguilera, Orlando Galo and Josimar Alcocer are all players to watch. However, it’s NYCFC striker Alonso Martinez that has been in the best form of them all. Martinez kicked off the scoring against Suriname. He has scored eight goals in 16 appearances for NYCFC this year and three goals in four for the national team.
Costa Rica have a high octane attack but their defense could struggle against high level opponents. However, they did manage to shut out Brazil in the group stage of the 2024 Copa America. Regardless, the Ticos sit at +1600 outright odds to win their first continental championship since 1989.
Gold Cup Outright Odds: Notable Longshots
Jamaica
The most positive takeaway from Jamaica’s shock 1-0 loss to Guatemala on Monday is that striker Michail Antonio returned to the pitch only six months after a life threatening car crash. Just to advance to the knockout stage, Jamaica now likely needs to get results against both Guadeloupe and Panama.
While they have some strong defenders and a talented forward line, with players like Leon Bailey and Bobby DeCordova-Reid, Jamaica are very thin in midfield. I’d be surprised if they go any further than the Quarterfinals, especially after their opening loss.
Still, you can take them at +2500 odds to win their first Gold Cup.
Honduras
Honduras opened the tournament at +3000 Gold Cup outright odds. However, their 6-0 loss to Canada on Tuesday was highly concerning. Honduras are 4-0 in World Cup Qualifiers but they folded upon playing their first high level opponent in 2025.
Now, bettors can find Honduras at +6600 odds to win the Gold Cup. Notably, they haven’t reached the Semifinals since 2013.
Guatemala
Guatemala pulled off the first real upset of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup by defeating Jamaica 1-0 on Monday. Los Chapines entered the game as +340 underdogs and Oscar Santis scored the game’s only goal in the 32nd minute.
While it is very unlikely Guatemala wins the Gold Cup, they have a great shot to get to back-to-back knockout stages for the first time in team history. It’ll likely just take a win or draw against Guadeloupe next Tuesday.
Those looking for a team to bet on at astronomical Gold Cup outright odds can consider Guatemala at +10000.
Gold Cup Outright Odds: Best Soccer Bets
If everything goes according to plan, Mexico should be able to win consecutive Gold Cups for first time since 2011. They have the strongest current roster from a talent and depth perspective and have been in good form for the last couple of years.
The US did get off to a winning start but they’ve been all over the place under Mauricio Pochettino. Also, too many key players are out to take them seriously. So, one of the best soccer bets on the odds board is Mexico at +188.
Meanwhile, we’d advise bettors not to sleep on Canada. Canada beat the US on American soil in March and a repeat isn’t completely out of the question. If Mexico slip up, Canada show great value, at +600 Gold Cup outright odds.
We certainly don’t think the US are three times more likely than Canada to win the Gold Cup. Canada were a tough out at last year’s Copa America and it should be the same this Summer. They’re one of the best soccer bets on the odds board from a value perspective.
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