With a draw against fellow title contenders Napoli last Saturday, defending champions Inter Milan remained in the top spot in Serie A. With just 11 games left, the title race is heating up, as three teams (Inter, Napoli, Atalanta) have a serious chance of being crowned champions. Two others (Juventus, Lazio) are in the running, but need to quickly close the gap. With the potential of a fourth unique champion in the last four seasons, we’ll take a look at the Serie A outright odds.
Following our rundown, we’ll give punters our best bet going forward. First, let’s take a look at the latest Serie A standings.
Serie A Table
Serie A Outright Odds: Analysis
Serie A Outright Odds List Inter as Favorites
The Serie A outright odds price Inter Milan as -140 favorites to win their third league title in five seasons. The Nerazzurri could have gone four points clear of second-placed Napoli last Saturday but Philip Billing’s late goal cancelled out Federico Dimarco’s perfectly-taken free kick. Now, the door is open for the likes of Napoli and Atalanta to take Inter down to the wire.
Simone Inzaghi’s Inter are going through a bit of a rough patch at the moment. They’ve managed just two wins in their last six Serie A matches. They are dealing with a wingback injury crisis, which should persist for at least the next few weeks.
Goalscorer Dimarco came off early against Napoli with a hamstring injury and could remain out for the next few weeks. Matteo Darmian, Nicola Zalewski and Carlos Augusto are also out, which complicates Inter’s title defense.
Still, goalkeeper Yann Sommer is returning from a fractured thumb and Inter have one of the deepest rosters in Europe. It may not be pretty but expect Inzaghi to find solutions for Inter’s wingback crisis. One viable option is switching to four at the back.
With Inter in pursuit of a fleeting Champions League title, it could certainly impact their Serie A form. Atalanta lost in the play-off round of the Champions League and Napoli didn’t qualify for any UEFA competition this season.
So, between the UCL and Coppa Italia, Inter could play up to 10 more games than their rivals between now and the end of the season. That could absolutely take a toll and we think Inter will turn their focus more to the Champions League.
Napoli, Atalanta on Inter’s Heels
Napoli may have sent out Victor Osimhen on loan last Summer and shipped Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to PSG a couple months ago, but that has not stopped their title charge. Antonio Conte has Napoli challenging for a second Serie A title in three seasons. Heading into Matchweek 28, Napoli are just one point behind leaders Inter Milan.
However, the Partenopei’s recent form has been dreadful. In their last five games, they have drawn four times and lost once. Napoli, with Romelu Lukaku and Scott McTominay playing leading roles, can still mount a late season title charge.
Notably, Bologna are the only top half side Napoli face away from home for the rest of the campaign. While Andre Zambo Anguissa could miss the next few weeks, Napoli have a mostly healthy squad. At +185 Serie A outright odds, they’re an interesting pick.
While Napoli have recently won the Scudetto, Atalanta (+900) have never done so. The 2023-24 Europa League champions haven’t given up a goal in Serie A for over a month and are in third place, three points behind Inter. Like Napoli, Atalanta are out of all other competitions and every match will be like a cup final from here on out.
Mateo Retegui looks set to win the Capocannoniere, as he leads the league with 21 goals. Meanwhile, the Europa League final hat trick hero, Ademola Lookman, ranks fourth with 12 goals. The problem for Atalanta is that their next six games are all against sides in Serie A’s top nine.
Inter Milan and Napoli both have much easier runs to close out the season, which is a problem for Atalanta. Gian Piero Gasperini has worked miracles before and pulling off a Serie A title against the odds would be his greatest trick yet.
Juventus Have Outside Shot
In the last few weeks, Juventus have crashed out of both the Champions League and Coppa Italia. Still, Khephren Thuram and Teun Koopmeiners scored in a 2-0 Serie A victory over Hellas Verona on Monday. The Bianconeri, who have been in fine form in Serie A, enter the weekend in fourth place, six points behind leaders Inter Milan.
Sunday’s match at the Allianz, against Atalanta, is a crucial match in the title race. If Juve are able to get a victory, they could be as little as three points outside of first.
Regardless, the current Serie A outright odds price Thiago Motta’s outfit as +1000 dark horses to win Serie A for the first time since 2019-20. Juventus have won each of their last five games in Serie A and they’ve also conceded the joint-fewest goals in the league alongside Napoli. Plus, Randal Kolo Muani has hit the ground running during his loan spell from PSG.
However, Juventus still have road matches against Fiorentina, Lazio, Roma and Bologna on the cards. So, they’re likely to drop a fair few points between now and the end of the season. While Juventus have only lost once in Serie A all season, they have as many wins as draws (13).
Shaky Defense Raises Questions About Lazio
Speaking of Lazio, the Biancocelesti are on a five game Serie A unbeaten run, culminating in a 2-1 win at AC Milan last weekend. Marco Baroni has done a solid job in his first season as Lazio boss. In fifth place, Lazio sit eight points behind first but it is a mountain to climb.
Lazio have conceded more goals than any other team in the top nine places in Serie A. As a result, the Serie A outright odds price Lazio as +10000 longshots to win the Scudetto, which would be their first since 2000. Lazio just aren’t consistent enough for us to think they have a shot at the title.
While Ciro Immobile would often bail the Biancocelesti out in years’ past, they don’t have a 10-goal scorer yet this season.
Serie A Outright Odds: Top Soccer Bet
Atalanta have won both of their last two road matches by 5-0 scorelines. They’ve scored the second most goals in Serie A, while conceding the fourth fewest and have the second best goal difference in the league. Their defense has been stepping it up in recent weeks, with four straight league clean sheets, and they certainly can’t lose if they don’t concede.
Not many people gave Atalanta a chance of winning the Europa League last season, which was their first-ever European trophy. Similarly, the Serie A outright odds seem to be discounting Atalanta’s chances to beat out Inter Milan and Napoli to the title.
Yes, Atalanta’s schedule from here on out is tough. However, Inter will play up to 10 more games than them from now until the end of the campaign. Meanwhile, Napoli haven’t won a Serie A game since January 25th. That is not exactly title winning form.
At +900 odds, Atalanta are our Top Soccer Bet to win their first Scudetto. It would further cement Gian Piero Gasperini’s legacy as Atalanta’s greatest-ever coach.
