After rivals Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid both drew over the weekend, Barcelona took the lead in La Liga with Monday’s 1-0 victory over Rayo Vallecano. That has prompted a shift in the 2024-25 La Liga champion odds. Unlike the Premier League title race, La Liga’s is very much wide open. Barcelona and Real are level on 51 points and Barça lead due to a superior goal difference.

Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid are just one point back. With only 14 games left and the title race heating up, it’s a great time to take a look at the odds and share our best bet. Over the last five seasons, Real Madrid have won La Liga three times. During that time, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have taken home the trophy one time apiece.

Even with Real Madrid’s all-world frontline, Robert Lewandowski and Barcelona have managed to score 13 more goals than Los Blancos up to this point. So, with almost two-thirds of the season gone, Barcelona lead the league.

Here are the rest of the standings in La Liga:

Table

Analysis, La Liga Champion Odds

Main Contenders

Barcelona have been on a tear lately, with four straight wins in La Liga by a combined 13-2 scoreline. Hansi Flick’s side have already beaten rivals Real Madrid twice this season, once in La Liga and once in the Super Cup final.

Their La Liga meeting on May 11 could have massive title implications and Barcelona have the advantage of playing at home. So, it’s not a surprise that Barcelona are +120 favorites to win a second La Liga title in three seasons.

Raphinha has unexpectedly been playing like a Ballon d’Or candidate this season. Flick has unlocked the Brazilian winger, as he’s scored 24 goals and provided 13 assists, in all competitions. Robert Lewandowski (36) is winning the fight against father time. The legendary Polish striker leads La Liga with 20 goals.

There was an adjustment period for Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid but he’s been playing exceptionally well lately. He’s scored seven goals in his last five La Liga games and netted a hat trick on Wednesday against Man City in the Champions League. However, Real have taken just eight points from their last five La Liga matches.

Last weekend, Real succumbed to a 1-1 draw at Osasuna as the referee sent Jude Bellingham off in the first half. Bellingham now faces two games on the sidelines.

His absence will hurt Real, who show +125 odds to become back-to-back La Liga champions. One would think that a frontline of Mbappe, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo would have returned more than 2.17 goals per game but they have been noticeably less potent than Barcelona.

Still, they’ve conceded under a goal per game even with Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao out for the season, as Raul Asencio has stepped up.

Simeone and Atletico Madrid: Wildcards

Atletico Madrid’s form has fallen off of a cliff in recent weeks. That and their lack of firepower, compared to Barcelona and Real Madrid, means they’re at +450 La Liga champion odds. If we’ve learned anything over the last decade, it should be that we can never count out Diego Simeone and his scrappy Atleti teams.

While Atletico Madrid have only won one of their last five La Liga matches, their only remaining matches against top four sides are at home. Still, midfielder Pablo Barrios has to serve a suspension at Valencia this weekend. Midfielder and captain Koke also looks set for a spell on the sidelines, with a muscle injury.

The biggest factors keeping Atletico Madrid in the title race are their world class keeper, Jan Oblak, and defense. Atletico Madrid have only conceded 16 times in 24 games, which is by far the best figure in the league. They only have two La Liga losses this season, which is the fewer than any other team. Still, none of Alexander Sorloth, Antoine Griezmann or Julian Alvarez have reached the 10-goal mark in the league yet.

Outside Looking In

2024 Copa del Rey winners Athletic Club hold the longest current unbeaten run in La Liga, at 15 games. They’re also just six points behind title favorites Barcelona and Real Madrid. This has been Oihan Sancet’s best-ever La Liga scoring season, as the attacking midfielder has found the net 12 times.

Bilbao also have the dangerous Williams brothers and Alex Berenguer in forward areas. However, after an incredibly strong Euro 2024 performance Nico Williams has just one goal and four La Liga assists. Still, defense is the strongest area of their team. Athletic Club have conceded fewer goals than every team other than Atletico Madrid.

Away matches against Atletico and Real Madrid should kill Bilbao’s title hopes but they’re still an interesting pick at +25000. Athletic Club will be more focused on securing a Champions League slot for the first time since 2014.

Meanwhile, fifth-placed Villarreal sit ten points from the top. While six points is tough enough, this is a mountain to climb for Villarreal. Their main objective will be to make the Champions League. Spain may very well get five teams in the UCL next year depending on how their teams do in European competitions this season. Regardless, Villarreal have never won a top flight title and sit at +50000 La Liga champion odds.

2024-25 La Liga Champion Odds: Top Soccer Bet

While Athletic Club at +25000 might be worth putting a couple of dollars on, let’s be realistic. No team other than Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid has won the La Liga title since Valencia in 2003-04.

Barcelona’s figure of 2.71 goals per game is by far the best in the league and they’re on a tear at the minute. They’ve been able to rely on a combination of youth and experience that has been a joy to watch. Lamine Yamal (17) and Pau Cubarsi (18) are two of their best players, while Lewandowski and Raphinha have combined for 33 of Barcelona’s 65 La Liga goals.

Flick won league titles in each of his two seasons as Bayern Munich manager. We also expect him to be able to see Barcelona through to the finish line in his first season in Spain. Barça are on a four game winning streak in the league and face Las Palmas, Real Sociedad and Osasuna over the next three weeks.

Obviously, with how much talent Real Madrid have, we can’t count them out. However, we think not having Carvajal and Militao will catch up to them. Any more defensive injuries could spell disaster for Ancelotti’s side. If Atletico Madrid start conceding goals, they don’t have an Mbappe or Lewandowski-level player who can bail them out.

So, Barcelona at +120 La Liga champion odds is our Top Soccer Bet.