After PSG demolished Inter Milan in last Saturday’s Champions League final, Ousmane Dembele is now the odds-on favorite to win the Ballon d’Or. Dembele dramatically surpassed previous favorite, Lamine Yamal, on the odds board. However, voters will still consider the upcoming UEFA Nations League and Club World Cup. Dembele’s France take on Yamal’s Spain in the Semifinal on Thursday. With the 2025 Ballon d’Or odds shifting for perhaps a final time, we’ll take a look at some of the top candidates and share our best soccer bet.
While Dembele is certainly the favorite, Yamal is not the only other player to have a strong case. Liverpool’s Mo Salah and Barcelona’s Raphinha have also had incredible campaigns. Plus, recency bias has certainly been in the mind of voters in the past. Rodri’s Euro 2024 victory with Spain helped him beat out Vinicius Jr. to the Ballon d’Or last year. Regardless, here are all of the realistic candidates to take home soccer’s biggest individual honor:
Ballon d’Or Odds: 1. Ousmane Dembele
2024-25 Stats: 33 goals, 13 assists. Won Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Trophee des Champions
Kylian Mbappe famously left PSG last Summer for Real Madrid. Regardless, the Parisians went on to win their first ever UEFA Champions League and continental treble in 2024-25. Ousmane Dembele was instrumental in PSG’s success this season. After dropping him for disciplinary reasons in October, Luis Enrique moved Dembele to striker and it worked wonders. Dembele scored key goals in the Champions League Round of 16 and Semifinal against Liverpool and Arsenal, respectively.
Dembele capped off an incredible season in the UCL with two assists in the 5-0 victory against Inter last Saturday. Following the match he was named the Champions League Player of the Season. He registered eight goals and six assists in the competition.
He was also joint-top scorer in Ligue 1, with 21 goals, as PSG wrapped up their title defense back in April. It’s hard to argue against Dembele’s Ballon d’Or case. PSG won every competition they possibly could have this season and Dembele finally reached his sky high potential. He played like a man possessed at times this season and looked nothing like the inconsistent winger he was at Barcelona.
Before the UCL final, Dembele stood at +160 Ballon d’Or odds to win the Ballon d’Or. Now, he’s a -250 favorite on the back of his performance in the Champions League Final. He can further solidify his case if France win the UEFA Nations League this weekend and PSG win the Club World Cup.
2. Lamine Yamal
2024-25 Stats: 18 goals, 21 assists. Won La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa de España
For 17-year old Lamine Yamal to even be in the Ballon d’Or conversation is frankly absurd. The youngest player to ever win the award was Ronaldo Nazario, at 21 years old. While Yamal’s stats don’t necessarily stand out like some of the others on this list, he was by far the best Barcelona player this season, according to respected ratings website whoscored.com.
Winger Yamal earned an average rating of 8.01 in 2024-25, which was the highest of any player in Europe’s top five leagues. He certainly passed the eye test, as he consistently looked like the most dangerous player on the field in Barcelona matches.
Yamal helped Barcelona win a domestic treble as they clinched all three of La Liga, the Copa del Rey and Supercopa de España. Sure, Real Madrid had a disappointing campaign, but Yamal scored in both La Liga Clasicos this season, which is incredibly impressive.
Yamal was a +150 favorite to win the Ballon d’Or prior to the UCL Final. However, he’s now listed at +450 Ballon d’Or odds. Raphinha being on Yamal’s team and his young age, meaning he’ll theoretically have plenty of time to win this award, could hurt his care.
3. Mohamed Salah
2024-25 Stats: 34 goals, 23 assists. Won Premier League
You could certainly argue Mohamed Salah is still underrated despite his countless achievements. Salah was instrumental in Liverpool’s Premier League title run and had a record breaking campaign in the process. Salah became the first player to record 47 goal contributions in a 38-game Premier League season.
He tied Alan Shearer and Andy Cole but the latter two both did it in a 42-game EPL campaign. In 2024-25, Salah scored 29 Premier League goals. The Egyptian won his fourth Premier League Golden Boot in the process. He also led the league in assists, with 18. However, Salah wasn’t at his best in big games. Plus, 11 of his 34 goals, in all competitions, came from the penalty spot.
Salah was inconspicuous at times. He was nowhere near his best in Liverpool’s losses to PSG and Newcastle in the Champions League and EFL Cup Final, respectively. Meanwhile, Yamal and Dembele were often at their best on the biggest stage. So, even though he had another extraordinary season, and led Europe in goal contributions, Salah’s +1200 Ballon d’Or odds accurately represent his chances to win the award.
4. Raphinha
2024-25 Stats: 34 goals, 22 assists. Won La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa de España
Raphinha, like Dembele, had by far the best season of his career in 2024-25. The winger turned into a goal machine for Barcelona and scored 34 times in all competitions. Raphinha finished as joint-top scorer in the Champions League, with 13 goals. He also matched Cristiano Ronaldo’s record for most goal contributions in a single Champions League campaign, with 21.
While Yamal’s overall performances may have been more impressive, it’s hard to argue with Raphinha’s numbers in 2024-25. He led Barcelona in goal contributions this season, with 56 in all competitions. Plus, he also led Barcelona in both goals and assists in the Champions League as they reached the Semifinal.
The Ballon d’Or odds price Raphinha as a +1200 underdog to win the award but he certainly made a case for himself during Barcelona’s treble-winning campaign.
Ballon d’Or Odds – 5. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2024-25 Stats: 12 goals, 9 assists. Won Champions League, Ligue 1, Coupe de France, Serie A*
The only other player at shorter than +2000 Ballon d’Or odds is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. One could certainly argue PSG would not have won the Champions League without adding the Georgian winger in the January transfer window. He scored three goals and provided two assists in seven UCL starts for PSG and his defensive work rate was also incredible.
Kvara scored in the UCL final and terrorized right backs with both Napoli and PSG. He could receive both Serie A and Ligue 1 winners’ medals as both Napoli and PSG won their respective leagues. His stats aren’t going to be enough to win him the Ballon d’Or this year.
However, we certainly wouldn’t be shocked if the 24-year old finds another gear and wins the award at some point in his career.
Ballon d’Or: Best Soccer Bet
Let’s keep this one simple. Ousmane Dembele has the most impressive trophy haul of any player on this list and was PSG’s key player in their first UCL triumph. His statistics aren’t too far behind Raphinha or Mo Salah’s and he was also named the Ligue 1 and Champions League Player of the Season. That should be enough to win the award alone. Voters will probably also be swayed by his dramatic transformation as a player.
Dembele, even at -250 odds, is the best soccer bet on the shortlist. He can further solidify his case if France win the UEFA Nations League and PSG win the Club World Cup. No matter what happens, expect Dembele to take home his first Ballon d’Or in September.
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