Liverpool clinched the 2024-25 Premier League title with four games to spare in Arne Slot’s first season as first team head coach. After the horrific news about former forward Diogo Jota, a heavy-hearted Liverpool will begin their title defense on August 15 against AFC Bournemouth. Contenders like Arsenal and Manchester City have retooled their squads. So, it certainly won’t be easy for Liverpool to repeat. Ahead of the 2025-26 campaign, we’ll check out the Premier League outrights and share our best value bet.
If you tailed our recent bet on the UEFA Women’s Euro Final, you would have won big.
To recap, Liverpool finished 10 points ahead of second-placed Arsenal last season. Meanwhile, Manchester City came in third in a rare down season for them. The Premier League clinched an extra Champions League spot due to strong performances in UEFA competitions by English teams. So, both fourth-placed Chelsea and fifth-placed Newcastle will play in the Champions League this season.
While Ipswich Town, Southampton and Leicester City all went down to the EFL Championship, Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland earned promotion to the EPL. Unsurprisingly, the three new boys are some of the biggest title longshots this season.
In any case, let’s take a closer look at the Premier League outrights.
Premier League Outrights: Favorite
Liverpool have had an incredibly busy summer. One may have expected them to rest on their laurels after winning the Premier League title but that hasn’t at all been the case. They wrapped up a £116m deal for Bayer Leverkusen attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz early in the window.
The deal made Wirtz the most expensive German footballer of all time. It was also a Bundesliga record sale. Liverpool also made a shrewd deal for Wirtz’s Leverkusen teammate Jeremie Frimpong. Frimpong will replace club legend Trent Alexander-Arnold, who left for Real Madrid.
The Reds have been recruiting heavily from the Bundesliga. They also signed striker Hugo Ekitike from Frankfurt for £69 million after the Frenchman scored 15 league goals in 2024-25. Talented young left back Milos Kerkez also joined from Bournemouth.
Liverpool can cap off an incredible summer transfer window if they’re able to seal a big money deal for Newcastle’s Alexander Isak. As Luis Diaz just left for Bayern Munich and Darwin Nuñez may also be on his way out, it’s certainly possible.
Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, while both in their mid-30s, are still two of the best players in the league. The pair signed two-year contract extensions to keep them at Anfield until 2027. Ryan Gravenberch also just won the Premier League’s Young Player of the Season Award. The Dutchman is a key cog in a formidable midfield with Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai.
Liverpool have every chance to win the league once again. According to the Premier League outrights, they’re +190 favorites to do so. However, it may be hard to focus on football after Diogo Jota’s tragic passing.
Top Contenders
Arsenal (+240) have also been busy in the transfer market after a third straight second-placed finish. The Gunners wasted no time signing Martin Zubimendi from Real Sociedad. However, their marquee signing of the summer was Viktor Gyokeres.
Gyokeres, a striker, scored 54 goals for Sporting CP last season in just 52 games. He gives Arsenal a much needed number nine. If Gyokeres is a smash hit, there’s no reason Arsenal can’t win their first Premier League title since 2004.
Arsenal also added Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Norgaard, Noni Madueke and Cristhian Mosquera to provide depth. Mikel Arteta cannot blame a small squad for Arsenal falling short anymore. If they sign Eberechi Eze it would be a near-perfect summer for the Gunners.
Arsenal already had the best defense in the league. Now, Bukayo Saka finally has an elite number nine to provide assists to.
Rodri’s ACL injury derailed Manchester City’s 2024-25 campaign. In fact, it was City’s worst season for 16 years as they lost 16 times, in all competitions. With the Kevin De Bruyne era over, Pep Guardiola needs Phil Foden to return to form. The Cityzens signed Tijjani Reijnders and the skillful Rayan Cherki to retool.
Erling Haaland is clearly one of the best strikers of his generation but he needs service to have a big impact. That shouldn’t really be an issue this season but City’s defense could be. Man City, who crashed out of the FIFA Club World Cup to Al Hilal, gave up six goals in their final two games of the tournament.
Man City are listed at +300 to win their fifth title in six seasons but they don’t project to be as strong as Liverpool nor Arsenal.
Dark Horses
Chelsea (+900) surprised quite a few people, including myself, by defeating PSG and winning the recent FIFA Club World Cup. The Blues also managed to dominate on their way to a UEFA Europa Conference League title in 2024-25. Enzo Maresca has done quite a good job with this young group and you could absolutely make the argument that Cole Palmer is a World Class player.
Along with Palmer, Chelsea have big midfield talents like Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez. Chelsea have been quite busy in the transfer market as well. The Blues have already brought in Joao Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Liam Delap and Estevao Willian. They may be a year or two away from genuinely contending for the Premier League title but the potential is definitely there.
Chelsea finished just five points behind second-placed Arsenal last season. Anything less than Champions League qualification this season would be a disappointment for the Blues.
In 2024-25, Eddie Howe led Newcastle (+3500) to a second Champions League qualification in three seasons. However, they’ve missed out on plenty of transfer targets. Joao Pedro, Liam Delap, Hugo Ekitike, James Trafford, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha all joined other EPL clubs.
If Alexander Isak leaves, Newcastle will have virtually no shot of winning the Premier League in 2025-26. Isak scored an impressive 23 EPL goals last season. His production will be ridiculously hard to replace. The Magpies already have a thin squad that will be stretched to its limits playing in four different competitions.
Premier League Outrights: Longshots
Manchester United have been busy this summer trying to improve their attack after Marcus Rashford’s loan move to Barcelona. The Red Devils brought in Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha who are both Premier League proven players ready to make an immediate impact.
However, Manchester United were shambolic last season. They finished in 16th place in the EPL, their worst-ever finish. Ruben Amorim’s work is nowhere near done. So, don’t be surprised if this is another down year. The silver lining is that United won’t have European competition to worry about.
Even at +4000 Premier League outrights, I would stay away from betting on Manchester United.
Tottenham (+5000) had many of the same problems as Manchester United last season. Spurs finished in 17th but managed to beat United in the Europa League final. Daniel Levy sacked Ange Postecoglou at the end of the season even though Big Ange ended Spurs’ 17-year trophy drought.
Now, former Brentford manager Thomas Frank will try to keep Tottenham competitive. Frank did wonders at Brentford with a small budget. It remains to be seen if he can manage bigger personalities at a bigger club. Things may be tougher if club legend Son Heung-min leaves Spurs this summer.
Aston Villa finished sixth last season and have a well-rounded squad. Morgan Rogers had a breakout campaign while Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins were superb. However, Emi Martinez made it clear that the season finale was his last game with the club.
The World Cup-winning goalkeeper hasn’t finalized a move elsewhere but Villa will likely have to replace him. Villa are an interesting pick, at +8000 Premier League outrights. However, they are a few pieces away from being genuine contenders.
Full Odds Board
No other club has odds shorter than +25000 in the Premier League outrights. Regardless, here’s the full odds board:
- Liverpool +190
- Arsenal +240
- Man City +300
- Chelsea +900
- Newcastle +3500
- Man United +4000
- Tottenham +5000
- Aston Villa +8000
- Nottingham Forest +25000
- Brighton +25000
- Bournemouth +35000
- Everton +50000
- Fulham +75000
- Crystal Palace +75000
- West Ham +75000
- Leeds +100000
- Brentford +100000
- Wolves +100000
- Sunderland +150000
- Burnley +150000
Analysis, Best Value Bet
Luis Diaz scored 17 goals last season for Liverpool, in all competitions and Trent Alexander-Arnold had nine goal contributions in the EPl. The Reds certainly need new signings Hugo Ekitike, Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong to hit the ground running this season. If not, it will be difficult to defend their title.
It’s hard not to think that Diogo Jota’s passing will have an impact on Liverpool’s focus this season as well. They may have an incredibly talented side and the one and only Mohamed Salah, but I don’t think they’re the best bet.
Manchester City are too vulnerable defensively. Rodri’s return should help but I still think there are some holes Pep has to fill.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are returning all of their key players apart from Thomas Partey, who is in significant legal trouble. Zubimendi should seamlessly replace Partey and improve Arsenal’s midfield. The Gunners finally have depth on the right wing and in midfield.
They’ve strengthened their side and finally added a deadly number nine. If Viktor Gyokeres can bag 20 league goals in the Premier League, I don’t think anyone’s finishing ahead of the Gunners this season.
This is a make-or-break year for Mikel Arteta after the board has given the green light for so many signings. The team finally looks complete and who knows what Arteta’s future holds if the Gunners finish in second place for a fourth straight season. We’re going with Arsenal to win the league, at +240 Premier League outrights, as our best value bet.
