No team has repeated as La Liga champions since Barcelona did it in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. This time around, Hansi Flick’s Barcelona certainly believe they have what it takes to repeat as champions. Still, it won’t be easy, and we’ll check out the La Liga outright odds for the 2025-26 season.
Real Madrid are obviously Barcelona’s biggest challengers and they’ve kicked off their season with two straight wins. It’s rare that a non-Real or Barcelona team wins the title.
In fact, it’s only happened twice since 2004. Both times it was Atletico Madrid but they’re off to a very slow start, with just one point in two games.
Regardless, we’ll check out the full La Liga outrights and share our best value bet for the season, which just got underway.
La Liga Outright Odds: Favorites
Barcelona are -115 favorites to repeat as champions, but they haven’t been able to bring in many reinforcements in the transfer market.
Joan Garcia is Barcelona’s new keeper, as Marc-Andre ter Stegen is out with a long-term injury. Meanwhile, Barça also brought in Marcus Rashford, on loan from Manchester United in the Premier League.
Other than that, Barcelona are running it back, but they did lose defender Iñigo Martinez over the summer. They have an all-world attack, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal. Hansi Flick is an attacking mastermind as well, so Barça should have no problem scoring goals.
They scored 102 times in 38 games last season, 24 more than second-placed Real Madrid. Yamal should only continue to get better but Barcelona are an injury or two away from disaster.
If Yamal, Lewandowski, or Raphinha go down for any significant amount of time, they’ll have to rely on Rashford. He may be able to resurrect his career at Barcelona but the Englishman has been wildly inconsistent over the last few seasons.
Outside of Lewa, they don’t have an out-and-out striker, and their defense may look vulnerable at times this season. They fell behind 2-1 over the weekend at Levante before pulling off a 3-2 comeback victory. Sure, they could end up repeating as champions, but there are plenty of reasons they might not.
Challengers
Real Madrid picked up 95 points en route to their 2023-24 La Liga title win. However, they were 11 points worse in Carlo Ancelotti’s final season at the helm in 2024-25.
Unlike Barcelona, Real Madrid have been proactive about improving their squad this season. Dean Huijsen is a big improvement on Raul Asencio at center back. Meanwhile, new left back Alvaro Carreras has gotten off to a good start at the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid completely revamped their defense and also brought in Trent Alexander-Arnold ahead of the FIFA Club World Cup. That’s in addition to 18-year old winger Franco Mastantuono.
An injury to Jude Bellingham has allowed Arda Guler to step into the spotlight. The Turkish playmaker has created more chances than any other La Liga player through two games.
Kylian Mbappe has also scored three goals in two games for Real, who have picked up two shutout victories.
Early signs under new manager Xabi Alonso have been good, and he seems to be giving plenty of opportunities to young players. The La Liga outright odds price Real Madrid at +110 to win the title this season. They’ve won in every even-numbered year so far this decade.
Dark Horses
Diego Simeone has done an incredible job at Atletico Madrid (+2000) over the last 14 years. He’s delivered two La Liga titles to the Atleti faithful and has reached two Champions League finals.
Unlike Real Madrid and Barcelona, Atletico have a ton of moving parts this season. They signed seven players who could end up becoming regulars. That includes midfielder Alex Baena, David Hancko, Johnny Cardoso, and Marc Pubill.
They also recruited Matteo Ruggeri and Giacomo Raspadori from Serie A and the exciting Thiago Almada from Brazil’s Botafogo.
With all of these new signings, it’s not surprising that Atletico Madrid are going through an adjustment period. They dropped their first match of the season to Espanyol, 2-1. Then, they followed it up with a 1-1 draw at home to newly-promoted Elche.
Falling five points behind Real Madrid and Barcelona this early in the season is obviously not ideal. Atletico certainly have some talented players, but it’s going to be very difficult for them to compete for the title.
The margin of error is very low and it could take 90 points or more to win the league this season. While we don’t doubt Atletico could finish as the league’s third-best team, +2000 La Liga outright odds seem to be just about right for them.
Notable Longshots
Athletic Club are one of just five sides to win their first two matches this season. The others are Real, Barcelona, Villarreal, and Getafe (!?). Bilbao are back in the Champions League for the first time in 11 years and that could harm their chances to compete in La Liga.
Still, they have very talented players like Nico Williams, who signed a new 10-year contract after a prolonged transfer saga, and Oihan Sancet. Sancet scored 15 goals in La Liga last season and he’s one of the top midfielders in the league.
Even so, Athletic Club sit at +5000 La Liga outright odds at the moment.
Meanwhile, Villarreal have won their last eight La Liga matches dating back to last season. Marcelino’s team sits in first place at the moment, on goal difference. They destroyed Girona 5-0 last Sunday and beat Real Oviedo 2-0 in their opener.
Villarreal also have to contend with Champions League football, after finishing fifth last season, which could prove to be tricky. However, they have a surprising amount of depth. New signing Tajon Buchanan scored a hat trick against Girona and there are high hopes for the former Inter Milan man.
Villarreal also added Alberto Moleiro, Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño, Rafa Marin, and Thomas Partey over the summer. There may be some value in taking their +6600 La Liga outright odds but they just lost Yeremy Pino to Crystal Palace.
Real Betis (+8000) are the only other team at shorter than +10000. Betis are close to reaching an agreement with Manchester United to sign last season’s loan hero Antony. That’ll improve Betis, but they’ve got no shot of winning La Liga with Isco out until November.
La Liga Outright Odds: Full Odds Board
- Barcelona: -115
- Real Madrid: +110
- Atletico Madrid: +2000
- Athletic Bilbao: +5000
- Villarreal: +6600
- Real Betis: +8000
- Real Sociedad: +15000
- Celta Vigo: +25000
- Valencia: +40000
- Sevilla: +40000
- Espanyol: +40000
- Getafe: +50000
- Osasuna: +50000
- Real Mallorca: +50000
- Rayo Vallecano: +75000
- Alaves: +75000
- Girona: +75000
- Elche: +100000
- Levante: +100000
- Oviedo: +150000
Best Bet
Xabi Alonso is clearly one of the best coaches in the world. In his first full season at the helm of Bayer Leverkusen, he delivered an unprecedented unbeaten Bundesliga campaign. They won the Bundesliga for the first time in their history and the DFB-Pokal as well.
With a massive budget at Real Madrid and some world class players, there’s no telling what he can do.
Mbappe has already scored three goals this campaign. If Mbappe is at his best and Vini Jr. has a campaign anywhere close to the one he had two seasons ago, it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat them to the title.
Barcelona haven’t been able to land reinforcements due to their financial situation. It could certainly catch up to them this season.
So, the best value bet on the odds board is Real Madrid. Take Real to continue their supremacy in even-numbered years and win the 2026 La Liga title.
Top Soccer Bet: Real Madrid (+110)
