Europa League action gets underway tomorrow, which means it’s time to discuss the best value bet to win the competition. Betting on pre-tournament Europa League futures used to be a fool’s errand, as Champions League teams who finished in third place in their groups would drop down to the UEL.
This is the second season without transfers between UEFA competitions, which makes it easier to hone in on the top candidates to win the 2025-26 Europa League. Only a few teams are at odds shorter than +1000, and they are by no means locks to make deep runs in the competition. So, there could certainly be some surprises.
We’ll start with the top contenders, and then we’ll identify some of the dark horses and longshots bettors should pay attention to. Lastly, we’ll share our best value bet for the 2025-26 Europa League.
Note that all odds come from BetMGM and are correct as of the time of publishing.
Europa League Futures: Top Contenders
According to Opta and BetMGM, Aston Villa are the favorites to win the UEL, at +600 Europa League futures odds. However, Unai Emery’s side are in the relegation zone through five Premier League games. Sure, Emery has won the Europa League four times as a manager, but he may not even last at Villa until Christmas at this rate.
Villa couldn’t turn a man advantage at Sunderland into three points last weekend, and they’ve scored just one goal in five Premier League games. Stay away from Aston Villa for the time being. Still, they did manage to reach the Quarterfinal of the Champions League last season, which is more than any other team in the field can say.
Gian Piero Gasperini won the Europa League in 2024 with Atalanta, and now he’s at AS Roma, who reached the Final in 2023. Roma (+900) look to be disciplined under Gasperini, with three shutout wins in their last four games. However, they’ve scored just three goals this season and haven’t yet found an offensive rhythm.
Real Betis (+900) reached the UEFA Europa Conference League Final last season and managed to sign loan hero Antony on a permanent deal. However, Isco is still out with an injury, and they’ll need him to be back at his best if they’re going to win this competition. The former Real Madrid attacking midfielder could be back next month.
The most chaotic of the top contenders is Nottingham Forest (+900), not in the least because Ange Postecoglou is their new manager. Big Ange’s Tottenham were horrendous in the Premier League last season, but won the UEL, which was their first trophy for 17 years. I wouldn’t completely put it past Ange to bring Forest back to their former European glory.
Dark Horses Pt. 1
FC Porto (+1000) are off to an excellent start this season. The 30-time Portuguese champions are 6-0 in the Primeira Liga as Samu Aghehowa has already scored four goals. They did, however, fall to Roma in the knockout play-off round last season and have a very inexperienced manager at the continental level, Francesco Farioli.
Vincenzo Italiano helped Bologna win their first major trophy since 1974, as they defeated AC Milan in the Coppa Italia Final in May. Italiano’s teams are usually remarkably consistent in cup competitions. As the manager of Fiorentina, he led the Viola to back-to-back Conference League Finals in 2023 and 2024.
It certainly doesn’t help that Bologna seem to lose their best players year after year, but they have a solid squad. The Europa League futures price them at +1100 odds to win their first major European trophy in club history.
Lyon (+1600) were weeks away from administrative relegation, but are 4-1 in Ligue 1 this season. They’ve conceded the fewest goals in France’s top flight so far and reached the UEL Quarterfinal last year. Young winger Malick Fofana is a player to watch for, as he scored six goals in the Europa League last season.
Dark Horses Pt. 2
The last time Celta Vigo (+1600) were in the Europa League (2016-17), they narrowly lost to eventual champions Manchester United in the Semifinal. Still, they’ve gotten off to a poor start to the season, with five draws and a loss. They don’t exactly have the offensive firepower to trouble some of the best teams in the competition.
Stuttgart (+1800) couldn’t hang with the big boys in the Champions League last season and went 3-1-4 in eight matches. They missed out on a knockout stage berth by a point and have lost key players like Nick Woltemade and Enzo Millot since then. Still, they have enough talent to go relatively deep into the competition.
Lille (+2000) finished in the top eight of the league phase of the UEFA Champions League last season. Les Dogues replaced outgoing striker Jonathan David with former Europa League winner Olivier Giroud. So far, they’ve scored 13 Ligue 1 goals in just five games.
However, the squad is noticeably weaker than last season’s version. Along with David, Edon Zhegrova, Lucas Chevalier, Bafode Diakite, and Gabriel Gudmundsson are all gone.
Notable Longshots
Nice missed out on Champions League qualification by losing to Benfica (4-0 agg.) in the third qualifying round. Franck Haise’s side have a brutal schedule ahead of them, which features teams like Porto, Roma, Fenerbahce, and SC Freiburg. So, +2200 Europa League Futures are just about right.
After finishing in eighth place in the Swiss Super League in 2023-24, Xherdan Shaqiri helped Basel return to glory in 2024-25. The “Power Cube” scored 18 goals in the Swiss Super League and has gotten off to a flying start in the 2025-26 season. His Basel sit at +2500 odds to win the Europa League.
Both of SC Freiburg’s recent forays into the Europa League have ended in the round of 16. They don’t have a number nine that strikes fear into the heart of opponents. They’ll be hoping Igor Matanovic develops into that, but it may take time. Freiburg are at +2500 odds to win the UEL.
Feyenoord (+2500) knocked AC Milan out of the Champions League last season. Their games are frequently high-scoring, but it’s unclear if they have the discipline to make a deep run.
Fenerbahce (+3300) sacked Jose Mourinho after failing to qualify for the Champions League. They have some big talents in the squad, though. Ederson, Milan Skriniar, Youssef En-Nesyri, Kerem Akturkoglu, Jhon Duran, and Edson Alvarez are all high-level players.
Celtic (+3300) couldn’t beat Kazakh side Kairat in the Champions League Playoff, which doesn’t bode well for their chances here.
Braga, also at +3300 Europa League Futures, didn’t manage to win a game on the road during last season’s UEL. They should make the knockout stage, but they haven’t won a match in the Primeira Liga for over a month.
Europa League Futures: Full Odds Board
- Aston Villa +600
- Roma +900
- Real Betis +900
- Nottingham Forest +900
- FC Porto +1000
- Bologna +1100
- Lyon +1600
- Celta Vigo +1600
- Stuttgart +1800
- Lille +2000
- Nice +2200
- Basel +2500
- SC Freiburg +2500
- Feyenoord +3300
- Fenerbahce +3300
- Celtic +3300
- Braga +3300
- RB Salzburg +4000
- PAOK +5000
- BSC Young Boys +5000
- Panathinaikos +5000
- FC Utrecht +5000
- Rangers +6600
- Viktoria Plzen +6600
- FC Midjtylland +6600
- SK Brann +6600
- Ludogorets +8000
- Genk +8000
- Dinamo Zagreb +10000
- Crvena Zvezda +10000
- Ferencvaros +10000
- SK Sturm Graz +10000
- FCSB +10000
- Malmo FF +10000
- Go Ahead Eagles +10000
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +15000
Europa League Futures: Best Value Bet
Fenerbahce (+3300) are certainly an honorable mention. Are they seriously three times less likely to win the UEL than Bologna? With a squad full of talented players and a new manager (Domenico Tedesco) with something to prove, Fenerbahce could make a deep run in the competition. Plus, the final is in Istanbul, at the home of their rivals, Besiktas.
It would be quite something if they were to win their first major European trophy at the home of their rivals, the way Olympiacos did when they won the Conference League at AEK Athens’ home stadium in 2024.
However, only one team on this list has won a European trophy in the 2020s, and that is AS Roma. The pieces are still coming together under 2024 Europa League-winning manager Gian Piero Gasperini, but the foundation is there.
If Paulo Dybala can put his injury problems behind him, he’s still capable of providing the creative spark that Roma need. Young attackers Evan Ferguson and Matias Soule will also have to assume a lot of responsibility.
Roma’s Derby della Capitale victory at Lazio last Sunday showed mettle. That ability to grind out results in an ugly fashion will come in handy in the Europa League.
The Giallorossi should only improve as the season goes on, and they have one of the most soundly built squads in the competition. In their last four UEL appearances, they’ve reached the Round of 16, the Semifinal (twice), and the Final.
This is a consistent team with one of the best managers in the competition. Take AS Roma to win the Europa League, at +900 odds.
Best Value Bet: AS Roma (+900)
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